Iran’s Iraq policy will noy change with Raisi presidency: Iraqi analysts
ERBIL, KRG, Iraq (North Press) – On Saturday, Iraqi political analysts stated that Ebrahim Raisi’s victory in the Iranian presidential elections will not change the reality of the Iranian foreign policy towards Iraq, but it may become “stricter.”
The Iranian elections committee announced the win of the ultra-conservative candidate Ebrahim Raisi in the elections with getting 62% of the vote, according to the non-final official results.
Muhammad Dershwi, a political analyst residing in Dohuk, said that Iranian foreign policy, especially towards Iraq, is linked with Wilayat al-Faqih (the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iraq represented, in recent years, a conflict zone between the US and Iran, similar to a large extent to an area of mutual pressure between both powers while trying to reach a settlement.
“This means that Iranian government foundations have no rule in determining the country’s foreign policy,” Dershwi added.
“That an invitation was sent to the Syrian President Bashar Assad to visit Iran without knowledge of the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs is an example of that; the thing that bothered the latter,” Dershwi explained.
On June 4, news reports mentioned that Iran sent an invitation to Assad for a visit.
The Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) quoted the former spokesman of the Iranian foreign ministry Ramin Mehmanparast saying an invitation was sent to Assad to participate in the 16th Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement scheduled to be held from 26 to 31 August.
“When the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has limited authorities, there will not be a notable change in the policy by the change of the president,” Dershwi referred.
“The policy of Iran towards Iraq is related to the agreement of the P5+1; if this agreement made a progress, then the role of Faqih (Guardian Jurist) may be marginalized, which will grant the Ministry of Foreign Affairs wider authorities,” he pointed out.
Najm Qassab, an Iraqi political analyst residing in Baghdad, told North Press, “the Iranian policy towards Iraq will not change, whether Raisi or another candidate wins, because Iran has a stable policy run by Faqih and the IRGC.”
Qassab stressed that no Iranian political party or societal force can change Iran’s policies towards Iraq, “which is considered a back door for Iran to overcome the sanctions imposed on it by the US.”
Raisi is a senior official who is currently under US sanctions. He is believed to have the support of IRGC, and had previously lost the election to Hassan Rouhani in 2017.
Raisi was born in 1960 in the city of Mashhad. He is a conservative cleric and politician, and is currently Iran’s judiciary chief who was appointed by Khamenei in 2019.
Qassab said that Iran’s policy towards Iraq is “stable”, but “it may change towards other countries,” because “Iran is trying to open up to countries it deserted during the previous government’s rule.”