We still have a lot to do in Idlib: Russian Foreign Minister
ISTANBUL, Turkey (North Press) – “We still have a lot of work to do with Turkey in Idlib.”
This statement said by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov raised questions about the message Russia wants to deliver.
Lavrov indicated that what is important in northwestern Syria is “the absence of bloody events.”
Lavrov’s words came in press statements last Tuesday from Moscow after his meeting with a Turkish Foreign Ministry delegation.
The matter of the fourth de-escalation zone in Idlib was among the most important issues discussed.
Lavrov’s words raised many questions about the message Russia wants to deliver, especially at this time, and what work it wants to complete with Turkey in Idlib.
“Syria is an important region for Russia, as it is a region with high sensitivity to international politics,” Ma’moun Sayyed Issa, a Syrian opposition figure, told North Press.
“Russia has worked to use Syria and the Middle East as arenas to expand Russian influence on military and diplomatic levels,” Issa said.
Consolidation of influence
Russia wants to consolidate its influence in the Middle East, especially after news emerged of the presence of huge gas reserves in the Mediterranean.
One of the important strategies in this regard for Russia is to improve its partnership with Turkey, and to contain any differences or tensions that Syrian government forces and Iranian militias may stir up, according to Issa.
Issa said that there is no real consensus between Russia and Turkey in Syria, “but the strongest is the one who imposes himself on the other.”
Issa indicated that the political solution is postponed until after the US elections, and “the situation will be different if Joe Biden wins.”
“The escalation of the conflict in Idlib is seen as the main reason behind the joint actions of Russia and Turkey,” said Denis Korkodinov, head of the International Center for Political Analysis and Forecasting.
“The armed opposition groups are creating additional tension and increasing pressure on Russia through attacks on its patrols,” he said.
However, this “does not contribute” to commitment to the ceasefire announced on March 5 in Idlib, he said.
“Turkey could take advantage of these conditions to launch a new military operation in northwestern Syria,” Korkodinov added.
He stated that President Erdogan is likely to realize that strengthening his position in Idlib will have the direct result of strengthening Moscow’s positions in Libya.
Such a development in events could pose a threat to Turkish interests, and could in fact mean “the overt humiliation of Erdogan,” according to Korkodinov.
Overlapping developments
What is happening in Idlib is closely related to the ongoing developments in the eastern Mediterranean, Libya, and other matters in which Russia and Turkey are active.
“The problem is that strengthening Russian positions in Libya hinders Turkey’s policy in the eastern Mediterranean,” Korkodinov said.
He attributed this to the increasing role of Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel, which is ready to join the anti-Turkey coalition “to meet its needs of energy.”
Korkodinov added that this phase is “decisive” for Erdogan to continue conducting joint Russian-Turkish patrols in Idlib.
He said that Ankara’s refusal to conduct joint patrols “would signal to Moscow that Turkey is not complying with the terms of the Sochi agreements regarding the establishment of a security zone.”
“Such a signal would serve as a basis for increasing tensions between Moscow and Ankara, and could lead to new attacks on Russian forces.”
During his meeting with the Turkish delegation, Lavrov indicated that joint patrols with Turkey are continuing in Idlib. “The results are not bad, but works are continuing and progressing,” he added.
Regarding this, Korkodinov said that Russian President, Vladimir Putin realizes that Turkey is restraining battles in Idlib to some extent, and the participation of the Turkish military in joint patrols is a guarantee of security.
Despite the series of attacks on patrols, Moscow and Ankara will continue conducting joint patrols in northwestern Syria, according to Korkodinov.
Last week, a Turkish Foreign Ministry delegation went to Moscow to discuss the Syrian crisis.
It was agreed upon with the Russian delegation to continue joint work according to the agreement signed on March 5, which provides for a ceasefire in Idlib and the conducting of joint patrols on the Aleppo-Latakia road.