War on Iran could reshape Middle East – Analyst
Qamishli, Syria (North Press) – The ongoing escalation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other could fundamentally reshape the balance of power in the Middle East, a Russian political analyst told North Press on Thursday.
Dmitry Bridzhe, a Russian political analyst, said the confrontation should not be viewed as an isolated military development but rather as part of a broader effort to restructure the regional order.
“What is happening today represents a shift from indirect warfare and limited operations to direct strategic pressure targeting Iran’s military and structural capabilities built over decades,” he added.
According to Bridzhe, Washington and Tel Aviv are attempting to impose a new equation aimed at preventing Tehran from developing nuclear capabilities or transforming its regional influence into a strategic deterrent.
At the same time, Tehran sees any retreat at this stage as a threat to the deterrence system it has built since the Iranian Revolution, he noted.
Bridzhe outlined three possible scenarios for the conflict. The first—and most likely—is the continuation of limited reciprocal strikes without escalating into a full-scale regional war, as all parties recognize that a major conflict could trigger global economic disruption and threaten regional stability.
The second scenario involves expanding confrontations to other arenas such as Iraq, Lebanon, and the Red Sea, through Iran-aligned groups, potentially leading to a broader but indirect regional conflict.
The third and most dangerous scenario, though less likely, would see deterrence collapse entirely and the region slide into open war between Iran and Israel with direct U.S. support, which could have serious implications for global security and energy markets.
Bridzhe noted that Iran’s political system is deeply institutionalized, combining religious leadership with powerful security and military structures led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
“Even severe military strikes do not necessarily mean the collapse of the political system,” he said, though they could weaken certain capabilities and reshape internal power dynamics.
If Tehran manages a calibrated response without triggering full-scale war, the region could eventually return to indirect negotiations and new security arrangements, he added. However, sustained attacks on Iran’s state infrastructure could push the Middle East into a prolonged period of instability.