By Abdulsalam Khoja
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Analysts say recent meetings in Paris between the Syrian and French foreign ministers, the U.S. Special Envoy for Syria, and the French foreign minister’s separate talks with the Commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) carry significant political implications. The discussions may offer a path to resolving the long-standing deadlock over the integration of the SDF into the Syrian army—provided both sides’ conditions are met.
While some argue that France lacks direct influence in the Syrian conflict, which remains largely shaped by U.S. and Russian interests, others highlight France’s strategic efforts to maintain strong ties with the SDF. They suggest that Paris seeks to reinforce its regional presence by continuing to support the SDF as a key counterterrorism partner.
Divergent views from Damascus and SDF
Bashir Baddour, a professor of international law, believes that integrating the SDF into the Syrian military through French mediation faces deep structural challenges tied to Syrian sovereignty and global power dynamics.
Speaking to North Press, Baddour explained, “France has no direct leverage in Syria—Washington and Moscow dominate the file. Paris’ approach resembles a soft diplomatic probe more than a firm negotiation strategy.”
He noted that the Syrian government’s transitional leadership insists on the complete dismantling of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) and its military structures before any integration can occur—a condition directly at odds with the SDF’s demands. The SDF, which considers itself a legitimate partner in the fight against terrorism with clear U.S. backing, seeks recognition and inclusion on its own terms.
According to Baddour, who is based in Damascus, “The SDF will not agree to join the traditional Syrian security apparatus without firm international guarantees. It knows that an imbalanced merger could cost it its current influence.”
Why Paris?
Baddour argues that relocating the talks to Paris sends a strong political message. “It helps detach the process from Syria’s internal security atmosphere, presents France as a European guarantor, and offers the SDF a less tense negotiation environment than prior meetings held under direct security pressure.”
He stressed, however, that the discussions in Paris are still at an early stage, better described as preliminary political talks rather than formal negotiations involving concrete security or military arrangements.
He linked the recent diplomatic momentum to developments in Suwayda, noting that the unrest there has contributed to a growing international and regional consensus on the limits of centralized rule in Syria.
“Capitals such as Paris, Moscow, and Cairo are increasingly open to decentralization models in areas like eastern Syria and the south—and perhaps even in Idlib in the future,” he added.
These shifts, according to Baddour, are creating a more flexible political environment for the SDF, encouraging openness to previously unacceptable ideas—despite continued formal opposition from Damascus.
He ruled out the likelihood of large-scale armed conflict, predicting instead “border skirmishes, sporadic arrests, inflammatory media narratives—all contained within clear international red lines designed to prevent escalation.”
Conditional European reengagement
For his part, Syrian Kurdish political analyst Shoresh Darwish emphasized France’s determination to maintain its strategic relationship with the SDF, which it views as a vital partner in the fight against terrorism and a key asset in projecting influence in the eastern Mediterranean.
“France realizes that abandoning the SDF would diminish its regional role, especially after the security successes achieved in partnership with them,” Darwish told North Press.
He also noted that France has grown increasingly aware of the limited influence wielded by U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack—especially in light of Kurdish accusations of bias toward Damascus—and now seeks to position itself as a more balanced guarantor.
Darwish added that the invitation extended to former Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa to the Élysée Palace was a symbolic gesture aimed at exploring the possibility of reintegrating Damascus into European diplomatic circles. However, he said this effort is contingent on Damascus entering serious negotiations with northeast Syria and agreeing to the SDF’s inclusion in both military and political frameworks.
- Struggle for influence
Syrian political analyst Bassam Suleiman noted that the talks reflect a growing rivalry between Ankara and Paris over zones of influence in Syria—a dynamic that complicates Damascus’s stance toward France’s involvement.
“Initially, the Syrian government refused to engage with Paris, rejecting any French mediation on the SDF issue. Damascus also worked to separate the Suwayda file from that of the SDF,” he said.
Suleiman explained that while Damascus succeeded in maintaining this separation, it eventually agreed to participate in the Paris talks, which focused in part on revisiting the terms of the March 10 agreement.
He concluded by warning that any military confrontation between the Syrian government and the SDF would be “extremely costly,” and that Damascus is likely to avoid such a scenario.