Israel warns U.S. of IRGC missile drill, fears surprise Iran attack
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Israeli officials warned the Trump administration over the weekend that a missile exercise conducted by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could be a cover for preparations to strike Israel, Axios reported on Monday, citing Israeli and U.S. sources.
According to the report, Israeli intelligence currently only shows force movements inside Iran, but Israeli officials say the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) tolerance for risk has dropped sharply following the Hamas-led surprise attack on Oct. 7, 2023.
One Israeli source said similar concerns were raised about six weeks ago after Iranian missile movements were detected, though no escalation followed at the time.
“The chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise,” the source said.
A U.S. official told Axios that American intelligence has no indication that an Iranian attack on Israel is imminent.
Behind the scenes, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir reportedly spoke by phone with U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Adm. Brad Cooper on Dec. 20, warning that recent missile movements and operational steps by Iran could conceal preparations for a surprise strike.
Zamir urged close coordination between U.S. and Israeli forces on defensive measures, according to the sources.
Sources cited by Axios said the primary concern is that miscalculation could trigger a broader conflict, with each side believing the other is preparing to strike and moving to preempt it.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Dec. 29 in Miami, where Iranian missile capabilities are expected to top the agenda.
Netanyahu reportedly wants to discuss Tehran’s efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal and the possibility of another strike against Iran in 2026.
Israeli intelligence, according to the report, sees early signs of renewed Iranian missile buildup following the 12-day war in June.
At the end of that conflict, Iran was believed to have around 1,500 missiles, down from 3,000, and roughly 200 launchers instead of the previous 400.
While Iranian forces have begun rebuilding, Israeli intelligence and the Mossad reportedly assess that the pace does not create an immediate need for military action in the next two to three months, though it could become more urgent later in the year.