DAMASCUS, Syria (North Press) – Russia has emerged as a key player in the Syrian-Turkish reconciliation process, a topic that has garnered significant attention recently. This renewed focus follows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent push to restore diplomatic relations with Syria, which have been severed for over a decade
Among the reasons for Russia’s interest in this reconciliation is the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which Russia views as crucial. Russia is focused on achieving its objectives, especially with the increasing impact of Western weapons, as seen recently in the Kursk region.
These developments push Russia to concentrate more on resolving this issue, particularly as it plays a direct role in the Syrian conflict.
Distrust
Russian expert on Middle Eastern affairs, Andrey Ontikov, says the reconciliation process is still in its early stages. Delays in reaching agreements stem from the deep mistrust between the two countries, despite their need to restore relations to pre-2011 levels.
Ontikov tells North Press that the Middle East is undergoing sensitive and critical changes that require both sides to start a political and security process to reduce tensions in the region.
He highlights that the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation, mediated by China, will not fully impact the region unless relations between Syria and Turkey are restored. Russia sees this as a step toward a multipolar world, where regional powers balance relations through mutual understanding.
Ontikov notes that the rising anti-refugee sentiment in Turkey, where over 3 million Syrian refugees reside, puts pressure on Erdogan to resolve disputes with the Syrian government. Failing to do so could allow his political rivals to exploit this issue, weakening his popularity and his party in future elections, he adds.
Russia will not miss the opportunity to bridge the gap between Syria and Turkey, using its close ties with both to help restore diplomatic relations, he says.
Different scenarios
Sergey Persanov, a researcher on international affairs, believes the normalization process will follow different paths, one of which may see tensions return to square one.
Persanov tells North Press that Northeast Syria remains the most complicated issue as Turkey’s approach challenges the Syrian sovereignty and the role of the Kurdish population. Turkey knows that Syria views this as a domestic matter and will not accept external interference.
He emphasizes that a solid and lasting understanding between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) would be the best option to eliminate Turkey’s justification for its security concerns.
Internal reconciliation
Persanov believes that an internal reconciliation addressing the interests of all Syrian groups is the most secure and viable solution to the crisis, aligning with Moscow’s vision for resolving the conflict.
He points out that there is a growing push in the U.S. for withdrawal from Syria and Iraq, emphasizing that a solution should emerge from the parties dedicated to a political resolution, rather than through half-hearted negotiations.