Analyst warns U.S. approval essential in any Syrian offensive against Kurds
RAQQA, Syria (North Press) – A U.S. green light is a prerequisite for the Syrian transitional government if it intends to initiate an offensive against northeastern Syria—territory currently administered by the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) and secured by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), according to Fabrice Balanche, a scholar specializing in Syria’s political geography and geopolitics.
In a Saturday interview, Balanche cited Ahmad al-Sharaa’s prior inability to bring the Druze Mountains under control—“humiliated by Israel,” as he put it—and underscored that any successful operation against the AANES would necessitate both Turkish military assistance and American neutrality.
Due to mounting tensions involving Israel, the U.S., and Iran, Balanche predicted that al-Sharaa is unlikely to secure the necessary U.S. authorization to proceed.
Discussing the broader context of Kurdish national rights in Syria, Balanche emphasized that the issue transcends the familiar binary of centralization versus federalism or the Sunni Arab majority versus minority groups. Rather, it must be considered through the lens of a wider geopolitical buffer zone—encompassing Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria—where Israel, Iran, and Turkey are deeply engaged.
He also suggested that Israel, despite opposing al-Sharaa’s political agenda, favors a federal structure in Syria and wants the U.S. to continue supporting the Kurds—similar to its backing of the Druze.
On March 10, Syrian Transitional President Ahmad al-Sharaa and SDF Commander-in-Chief Mazloum Abdi inked a pivotal agreement aimed at integrating northeast Syria into the central state. It included provisions for merging the SDF into state institutions, asserting Kurdish rights, and bringing key infrastructure—such as oilfields, borders, and airports—under Damascus’s control.
On June 1, official delegations from both the Syrian government and the AANES met in Damascus. They agreed to form specialized sub-committees to coordinate on areas like education, return of displaced populations, and contested Kurdish-majority neighborhoods such as Ashrafiyeh and Sheikh Maqsoud in Aleppo.
Officials from the AANES have been clear that the deal does not amount to a “handover.” Instead, the dialogue is about institutional integration while preserving the status and future of those who served under the AANES system.
However, negotiations have faced significant hurdles due to external interference, according to senior AANES figures, especially regarding essential issues like education and oil governance. Additionally, in response to escalations in Syria’s coastal regions, the AANES called for dialogue and restraint, warning that continued violence could further fragment the country.
By Zana al-Ali