The extraordinary relationship between US president Donald Trump and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which can be found in media reports, indicate that Erdogan is one of the presidents most in contact with his American counterpart by phone.
Their relationship goes beyond diplomatic cooperation to a personal relationship, as the main issues that have formed the main disagreements between the two countries has been overlooked or postponed to a later time.
These issues include the sanctions that had to be imposed on Ankara after their purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system, or Turkish institutions’ involvement in programs to circumvent the US sanctions imposed on Iran, known as the case of the Turkish National Bank (Halk Bankasi).
They also include the economic sanctions that Trump hinted he would use to “destroy” the Turkish economy in light of the Turkish government’s initiation of the Peace Spring operation and its occupation of Sere Kaniye (Ras al-Ain) and Tel Abyad (Gre-Spi), and other controversial issues that confused the United States and embarrassed the Turkish support team more than once.
A year ago, Donald Trump issued an executive order to extend the national emergency in Syria, explaining the extension at that time, directed at the Syrian regime and justified by Damascus using chemical weapons, supporting terrorist organizations and obstructing the Lebanese government’s capabilities.
Now Trump has issued a similar order and extended the state of emergency for an additional year, but the current extension had a different explanation than the previous year.
The White House statement clearly expressed the purpose of extending the presence of its forces in Syria by citing “the situation in and in relation to Syria, and in particular the actions by the Government of Turkey to conduct a military offensive into northeast Syria”.
The statement noted that these actions “undermine the campaign to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, endangers civilians, and further threatens to undermine the peace, security, and stability in the region, and continues to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.”
The new American approach to the situation in northeastern Syria is based on several levels, including Washington’s desire to maintain the status quo until the end of the election race.
Any adventurous Turkish behavior aimed at annexing more border areas in northeastern Syria or expanding the area of conflict with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will lead to confusion in the incoming US administration and accompanying tension in the relationship between Washington and Ankara, as well as the strengthening of the Russian presence in the region.
This also includes the possibility of Turkish attacks which have the potential to undermine security, revive ISIS networks and cells, and confuse local security forces and US-led Global Coalition forces.
Washington blames this potential security crisis on the Turkish invasion and occupation of Sere Kaniye (Ras al-Ain) and Tel Abyad (Gre-Spi), despite the involvement of Trump’s administration in it by granting Ankara the green light to carry out the barbaric invasion.
The incumbent administration, in some way, avoids this grave mistake, which would not have benefited the American strategy east of the Euphrates, in addition to not satisfying Turkey’s appetite for the neo-Ottoman expansion project.
But the decision to extend their presence does not come with the slightest sense of guilt or involvement in a humanitarian catastrophe, and complicates the solution in Syria by granting Turkey a foothold in northeastern Syria and attracting Russia to the east of the Euphrates, which continuously provoke American forces.
Through this decision and its justification, the White House is trying to flirt with Republican circles in Congress who seemed angry at the withdrawal decisions from northeastern Syria.
Thus, Trump tries to satisfy his partisan team that rejects Turkey’s hysterical and violent policies that are consistent with Russian policies in the Middle East, despite there appearing to be a Russian-Turkish contrast and contradiction.
The Turkish government and the Foreign Ministry, who have always been upset with these sanctions, did not comment on this US decision, and perhaps the reason for the matter is that the Turkish government is waiting for the results of the US elections.
The Turkish response may be interpreted as being in the interest of the Democratic rival Joe Biden, who in turn does not seem a suitable option for the Turks.
The other reason lies in the Turkish government’s knowledge of the essence of the issue, where President Trump seeks to placate Republican supporters by showing some verbal extremism toward Turkey, but until matters are settled in his favor, the relationship between him and his Turkish counterpart will return to its previous state.
Of course, imposing a national emergency in Syria does not mean protecting Washington’s local allies. The president can issue another decision similar to the first decision. He can also implement the final withdrawal, especially when we talk about Trump’s success for a second presidential term.
Thus, it becomes the responsibility of the SDF and the Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria (AANES) to accelerate the intra-Kurdish dialogue, and the dialogues between the Kurds, Arabs, and Syriacs, in order to consolidate the Autonomous Administration experience and give it as much time as possible.
It is also necessary to ignore the Turkish pretexts that insist on the issues of “the Ocalan administration” and its “separatist nature,” as such excuses fall on deaf ears in some quarters within the US administration.
Over the past four years, the policy of the United States appears to be turning the hourglass whenever sand seeps into its lower half, while AANES seeks to buy itself more time.
This seems difficult under a highly volatile US administration, but what may make it easier is that AANES brings about fundamental changes that lead to an end to the heavy and annoying Turkish nightmare at all times.