TEL TAMR, Syria – (North Press)
The Syrian government expects to form an economic way out in light of the collapse of its currency via the reactivation of the M4 and M5 highways.
Economists see these steps as part of unsuccessful efforts by the Syrian government, with the help of Russia, to circumvent Caesar Act sanctions.
Observers believe that the opening of the M5 highway in February and the M4 highway in May after seven months of closure is a proactive step by the Syrian government to restore economic movement in Syria, especially in light of the inability of the government allies Russia and Iran to support the Syrian economy because of American restrictions imposed on them.
Circumventing sanctions
Hasakeh-based economist Ayman Kalash told North Press that in the case the sanctions are implemented and not postponed, the opening of the M4 highway and the return of commercial convoys will not mitigate the effects of Caesar Act.
He noted the purpose of its opening at this stage and the Russians' haste to open it was clearly in order to mitigate the impact of Caesar Act sanctions.
"Opening the M4 highway with the help of the Russians would not be of great benefit, because the US sanctions of Caesar Act would cause great harm to all government institutions and companies dealing with them because of its economic deterioration after nine years of the Syrian crisis."
He added that the Central Bank of Syria had exhausted all foreign currency reserves during the Syrian crisis and could no longer circumvent Caesar sanctions by pumping the market with foreign currency.
The M4 highway between the towns of Tel Tamr and Ain Issa returned to service after seven months of its closure due to its takeover by Turkish forces and their affiliated armed opposition groups.
Pavel Igorian, a Russian officer at the Russian Reconciliation Center in Syria, told North Press at the opening of the M4 highway on May 25 that the reopening of the M4 highway to travelers came after long talks between Turkey and Russia to allow the passage of civilians from Tel Tamr to Ain Issa and vice versa under Russian protection.
Igorian also explained that the road is open to commercial convoys and all Syrian citizens.
According to information obtained by North Press from military sources, the agreement for the opening of M4 highway came in accordance with a Russian-Turkish agreement with understanding of the Syrian Democratic Forces, and stipulates the establishment of five observation posts on the highway between Ain Issa and Tel Tamr under the supervision of the SDF and the Syrian government to ensure the safety of civilians. The agreement also mandates that no forces set up any checkpoints on the highway. not setting up any checkpoints for any parties on the highway.
The M4 highway is considered a vital highway in northern Syria and of economic importance as it connects the northern and eastern regions of Syria with the western and coastal regions.
Hundreds of trucks are seen transporting oil from the areas of the Syrian Jazira region to the Syrian interior on a daily basis, but observers believe that all of this will not have a positive impact on the economy unless the government moves politically, since the sanctions will completely destroy the Syrian economy just as US sanctions did to Iraq, and that Syria will enter into a maze with no exit.
Negotiations with the Autonomous Administration
Kalash points out that the opening of the M4 highway will not have positive results on the Syrian economy despite the attempts of the Syrian government to pressure merchants and companies operating in its areas of control to strengthen the economy.
"The Syrian government has no solution but to enter into negotiations with the Autonomous Administration and recognize it, because the latter has the potential to alleviate the economic crisis,” he added.
The Autonomous Administration announced the prevention the removal of the dollar from its regions in light of the collapse of the value of the Syrian pound against the US dollar after a group of currency traders in the region was collecting and selling dollars in Syrian government-held areas that suffer from suffocating economic conditions.
Diyar Ahmed, a journalist active in the city of Hasakah, said the Caesar sanctions will test the Syrian government, causing them to speculate on and manipulate stock markets and purchase wheat from Jazira at higher prices to serve the interior regions. However, all of this will not save it in light of the collapse of its economy and the absence of effective solutions to get the Syrian government out of this crisis.
He added that the Syrian government's continued obstinacy without agreeing to a political solution will lead the country to a major economic catastrophe. "The Caesar Act is not normal, and will bring the Syrian pound to the lowest levels, and the government's stubbornness will push the country towards the abyss."
The Caesar Act, approved by the U.S. Senate in December last year, aims to impose sanctions on senior Syrian officials including Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, companies that provide military, financial, and technical support to the government, as well as Russian and Iranian allies in Syria, in a step to pressure the government to reach a political solution in the country based on Security Council Resolution 2254.
The Caesar Act was named after a former photographer at the Documentation Department of the Military Police in Syria who took thousands of pictures of victims of torture in government detention and other violations and smuggled them out of the country.
Political goals
Ahmed notes that the opening of the highway has also political goals through which Russia seeks to gain a popular base in the region and to declare itself an alternative to the Global Coalition forces that withdrew from the region following the Turkish attack. This goal is evident in their incitement of local civilians against U.S. armored vehicles on the main roads, with the support of the Syrian government.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently issued a decree mandating the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense, in agreement with the Syrian government, to conduct negotiations in order to handing vital facilities and marine areas in Syria over to Russian forces, in a step to secure Syrian facilities after more than five years of military intervention and before the start of implementing the Caesar Act. Observers see this as an attempt to save the Syrian economy.
What if sanctions are not applied?
Less than two weeks before the implementation of the Caesar Act, which is expected to begin on June 17, many believe that the Syrian government will use all means to avoid American sanctions and avoid the impasse of the impending economic catastrophe that is expected to hit all aspects of the Syrian state and its institutions.
Kalash says: "All expectations indicate that the exchange rate will reach more than two thousand Syrian pounds against the dollar before the implementation of sanctions, and if implemented, the value of the Syrian pound will gradually collapse further and further.”
He added that if the sanctions are not implemented, the Syrian regime will be given another breath to support the Syrian pound, but not as expected because the reconstruction of Syria is more expensive than the cost of the war, and reviving the Syrian economy has become like reviving a dead body.