Turkish analyst: No light looming at the end of the tunnel in the Kurdish-Turkish relationship
Washington DC – North-Press Agency
Hadeel Oueiss
Turkish analyst and journalist, Ilhan Tanir, who lives in the US, said that the military operations, the state of emergency and inflaming nationalist sentiments are Erdogan’s next strategy to be re-elected again.
During his talk with North-Press, he saw that the relationship with Putin, who accepts tyranny, suits Erdogan’s model for Turkey, as he explained that Washington was ready to hand over “Gulen” if Ankara provided evidence of his involvement in the coup attempt.
Here’s the text of the interview:
In the end, Washington decided to deprive Turkey of F-35 aircraft deal, how do you see the reaction and the impact on the long-term US-Turkish relationship?
The consequences will not stop at the deprivation of the F-35 aircraft deal, and the reasons behind the deterioration of the relationship were not only Turkey’s purchase of the Russian anti-aircraft missile system.
The most important thing that will lead to this step, is a split period between Turkey and the Western world and the United States, it’s unknown how would the trade and defense relations in general between Turkey and Washington continue.
Although President Trump has blamed Obama because of the deterioration of the relationship to this level, the laws facing the relationship are multiple and the challenges are many.
Today, the Turkish people are being massively mobilized against the West and American values, the Turkish government portrays the US and the Western allies as enemies, this societal sense will promote schism and its bad consequences.
What causes this schism?
The most important reasons for the tension of the relationship and the inconvertibility of repairing it is the lack of solutions to several issues, such as the US support for Syria’s Kurds, a plan that deteriorates the relationship with Turkey.
Second, Turkey wants Fethullah Gulen, who lives in the United States, to hand him over to Turkish justice, Turkey accuses him of being behind the coup attempt, while in Washington, no one looks at this request realistically, while Washington has demanded Turkey for invulnerable evidence about Gulen’s support for the coup, and this does not exist, an issue that’s been complicating the relationship since the last three years.
The western governments and the United States see that what happened after the coup attempt, was as an authoritarian movement where Erdogan exploited it to focus on his powers and move away from the democratic model.
Erdogan missed the respect of the western governments because he suppressed the democratic values of Turkey, then his option to intervene in Syrian affairs which was not an option driven by the situation in Syria, but by the desire to move away from the western governments and Washington where they put many criticisms of human rights violations in Turkey, and therefore Putin and Russia’s values that accept tyranny, suit the new era of Turkey.
With this Turkish distance from the US, does Turkey believe that Putin will secure Turkish interests in Syria?
Turkey, and before the tensions with the West, needs Russia in this period for natural gas, especially with the sanctions on Iran and Turkey’s inability to obtain Iranian oil, so 60% to 70% of Turkey’s energy needs come from Russia now.
Turkey’s position in comparison to Russia’s is weak, as Turkey cannot make pressure due to its weakness, especially Turkey’s strong point is the relationship with the West, and as we mentioned, after the S-400 missile system deal, Erdogan’s position has been weakened.
It’s unknown which paper Erdogan has, to make balance with Putin, where he does not have much, Erdogan will be left to the mercy of Putin, and if he is waiting for mercy from Putin, then we say “good luck”, but it will not be easy.
Now, Putin has allowed the Turkish forces to take Afrin and Idlib in one way or another, Turkish presence in these areas is subject to the Russian decision, if Russia says tomorrow, let Assad attack Turkey, Turkish military positions in Idlib will change and the Assad campaign will make more problems related to the refugees due to the pressure on Idlib by Assad’s regime, this will put Erdogan in a very difficult position.
How do you see the scene with the Kurdish component within Turkey, how does it affect Syria, and is the ruling party going to reconcile with the Kurds and try to create new alliances or go for more escalation?
This is a big question that is being asked in Turkey today, the Kurds have contributed to the loss of the ruling party, and Erdogan knows that from now on, it’s very difficult to win any coming elections, new parties are being formed by his former allies such as Ali Babacan and Abdullah Gul.
The Kurdish component is coherent and has made the Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) fail and is determined to its failing, I do not see any light at the end of the tunnel for the Kurdish-Turkish relationship now, because it’s difficult to restore confidence in the ruling party, even though the “Justice and Development” had begun its era with a reconciliation speech with the Kurds, but it has lost this opportunity.
The Justice and Development (AK Parti) has lost its base and tries to bring it back, in the loss of full confidence of the Kurds, it will seek to satisfy the nationalists, I think it will put the country at the mercy of the state of emergency and to announce operations to counter what it calls “terrorists” on the borders with Syria. This is the only way to turn the attention of the Turkish people towards the protection of the national security to let people feel that they are threatened and that they must go to the polls to protect themselves from imminent terrorist danger.
This scenario is bad and I hope it does not happen, but that’s what I see.
Erdogan’s only way is to inflame the national sentiment and intimidate the people to elect him again.