Iran s actual capability to produce a nuclear bomb in two years
Ramallah – North-Press Agency
Ahmed Ismail
While Iran confirmed resuming uranium enrichment at a higher rate than permitted in the 2005 nuclear agreement with international powers in response to the U.S. President Donald Trump's withdrawal, Israel's concerns have increased about the Islamic Republic producing a nuclear bomb within two years.
However, the retired Iraqi military expert Major General Majed al-Qaisi in his interview with North-Press, has ruled out that Iran would be able to actually make a nuclear bomb after 44 months from now, noting that whoever talks about this is only the U.S. and Israel, but the International Energy Organization did not give its opinion in this regard until the moment.
Therefore, Gen. al-Qaisi said that he does not believe that Iran is capable of making this bomb after two years, because making the nuclear bomb needs to enrich more than 90%, and this is not what is happening in the meantime. Gen. al-Qaisi considered that what the Israelis are talking about is part of the exaggeration aimed at pressuring Tel Aviv on the West and the U.S. to deter Iran and force it to amend the agreement in a way that guarantees the conditions of Tel Aviv and Washington. He estimated the number of Iranian sites and plants in Iran at 15, the most important of which are the reactors of Arak, Isfahan, Bushehr, Fordo power station and Natanz facility, in addition to Darkovin reactor near the borders with Iraq.
On the other hand, the Israeli political analyst Shaul Menshe believes that Israel’s concern about Tehran producing a nuclear bomb in a short time is not exaggerated, indicating, “we must take into account that Iran is currently seeking not to exceed 3.5% of uranium enrichment, and this is what the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) allows.”
However, what Iran is doing now is to increase the amount of enriched uranium, which has boosted the estimates of Israel and the CIA that within two years it would be enough to produce a nuclear bomb, according to Menshe.
He explained to North-Press that it is known that the time needed to enrich uranium from 3.5 – 90% to produce a nuclear bomb is a short time and from here comes the Israeli warnings. What is clear is that if Iran exceeds uranium enrichment beyond 20%, then this means that the nuclear bomb will be ready in a short time, according to Menshe.
But the central question is whether Iran is really seeking to build a nuclear bomb, or is it using it as a pressure card to reach a satisfactory nuclear agreement?
Shaul Menshe replied: "Of course, if Iran exceeds enrichment by 3.5, then this means violating international agreements, and therefore a global necessity to act against the production of a nuclear bomb.” He referred to statements by the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the U.S. President Donald Trump that they will not allow Iran to produce a nuclear bomb and that there are ways to stop it.
Meanwhile, Brian Hook, the U.S. Special Representative for Iran said that the U.S. would not allow Iran to enrich uranium at all if the two sides negotiated again. His remarks followed the European calls for a new nuclear agreement backed by Washington, which Tehran opposes.