UNHCR expects one million Syrian refugees to return in 2026
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Around one million Syrian refugees are expected to return to their country in 2026, amid alleged gradual recovery following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported on Sunday.
In an interview with Turkey’s Anadolu Agency, UNHCR Syria Representative Gonzalo Vargas Llosa said that about 1.3 million Syrian refugees have already returned since December 2024, in addition to nearly two million internally displaced people who went back to their areas of origin.
“This means that more than three million Syrians have returned within a relatively short period of time to a country exhausted by war at the economic, infrastructure, and service levels,” Vargas Llosa said.
He added that he was in Syria shortly before the collapse of the former government and witnessed the early stages of the political transition, adding that fear that had long dominated Syrian society “receded quickly and was replaced by a widespread sense of hope.”
Vargas Llosa said UNHCR teams visited the Lebanese border on Dec. 9, 2024, where they saw thousands of Syrians returning spontaneously after more than 14 years of forced displacement, with many expressing joy upon reaching their homeland.
Since Dec. 8, 2024, refugee returns have come mainly from Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, with smaller numbers from Egypt and Iraq, he noted.
UNHCR estimates that an additional one million people could return in 2026, bringing total returns to more than four million within two years.
He stressed that such large-scale returns are taking place under extremely difficult conditions, making international financial support “urgent and decisive” to ensure stability and prevent further humanitarian crises.
The UN official pointed out that Syria is undergoing a complex transition that will take time after 14 years of war, but noted that the country has managed to reconnect with the international community within a relatively short period after years of isolation.
Vargas Llosa emphasized that full lifting of sanctions is a key factor for accelerating recovery, expressing hope that sanctions relief will open the door to large-scale private investment needed for reconstruction and development.
Syria has witnessed growing refugee and displacement returns following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government on Dec. 8, 2024, after nearly 14 years of conflict that forced millions to flee the country.
Sanctions imposed during the war, including the U.S. Caesar Act enacted in 2019, severely restricted economic activity and reconstruction. On Dec. 17, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the National Defense Authorization Act for 2026, which included provisions repealing sanctions imposed on Syria under the Caesar Act, officially lifting them.