By Hozan Zubeir
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Experts and observersdownplay the impact of the escalating conflict in Gaza and operations attributed to Iran’s proxies against US military bases in the Middle East and efforts to combat the Islamic State (ISIS).
Since the outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Hamas on October 7, threats by the Islamic Front of Resistance in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon have intensified, targeting US interests.
On Monday, the Islamic Front for the Iraqi Resistance, affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claimed responsibility for targeting US forces in al-Rukban and al-Tanf garrisons, in southern Syria near the border with Iraq and Jordon, using two drones.
During the past week, Ain al-Assad base in al-Anbar, Harir base in Erbil, and bases in northeastern Syria, were subjected to drone and missile attacks without causing significant damage.
The attacks attributed to the Islamic Front of Resistance cannot be separated from the situation in Gaza. As tensions and conflict in Gaza escalate, the frequency of attacks on US sites in the Middle East, especially in Iraq and Syria, increases, according to Iraqi security expert, Jabar Yawar, speaking to North Press.
Yawar, the former Secretary of the Peshmerga Ministry in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), believes that these attacks will continue as long as the conflict in Gaza persists.
However, regardless of their frequency, Yawar believes that these operations will not significantly affect the US presence because the US administration has reserves and deterrent means to counter missile and drone attacks.
The US announced, on Sunday, that it will send air defense systems (Patriot and THAAD) to the Middle East.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III announced in statement, after discussions with US President Joe Biden on recent escalation by Iran and its proxies, activating “the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery as well as additional Patriot battalions to locations throughout the region to increase force protection for U.S. forces.”
Yawar pointed out that the US had issued warnings to its citizens and diplomatic missions following the recent escalation, anticipating potential targeting risks.
“The attacks on US sites have no tangible impact on the ongoing efforts to combat ISIS, despite the persistence of cells and remnants of the group, especially ideologically, as the group’s activities have significantly declined even before the outbreak of this year’s conflict compared to previous years,” Yawar said.
He revealed that the toll of ISIS operations during the first nine months amounted to only 32 operations, a significantly lower number compared to 2018, when there were over 465 operations.
In a related context, Jordanian writer and journalist Raddad al-Qallab told North Press that the Iranian escalation through its proxies against the US forces in Syria and Iraq is a response after the US deployed additional troops and warships to prevent Iran and its-affiliated factions from intervening in the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
However, al-Qallab believes that these attacks do not have a strategic impact on the US presence in the region. On the contrary, Washington has demonstrated its commitment to stay in the Middle East, especially in support of its allies, such as Israel.
In addition to aircraft carriers in the eastern Mediterranean and air defense systems, US military units have been deployed in Syria and Iraq, as well as other bases in the Arabian Gulf for years, primarily for the purpose of combating ISIS as part of the Global Coalition and as part of Central Command (CENTCOM) forces to deter Iran.
The journalist pointed out that the display of US strength has been met with weak stances by Russia and China that were two potential political poles, especially after the conflict in Ukraine.
As for the consequences of the escalation on anti-terrorism efforts, al-Qallab stated that the impact is limited because the war against ISIS has receded and become a secondary issue, given the world’s preoccupation with current regional events.