RAQQA, Syria (North Press) – The Republican Guard, affiliated with the Syrian government forces, started to reinforce its presence in Deir ez-Zor in eastern Syria in early 2023, following a US-Iran escalation and leaked news of Russia and Iran’s intention to prepare for attacks against US bases.
Military experts believe the purpose of the Republican Guards’ presence is not to prepare government forces for attacks against American troops present in northeast Syria but rather to “legitimize” and protect Iran’s presence.
Military sources told North Press that the Republican Guard came to Deir ez-Zor in 2020 but had a limited presence of 200 members in the city. With time, they established guard posts in the desert and seven deserted villages, then recently deployed in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor.
Enhancing presence
The Republican Guard’s posts are located near the Euphrates River in Hawija Saker in the south of Deir ez-Zor, as well as in the villages of Mazloum, Marat, and Tabiya, which share two joint posts with the Russian forces.
In the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor, the Republican Guard controls two posts in the town of al-Abbas and another in the town of al-Mujawida. They seized them in early June after the withdrawal of the Fourth Division forces. Days later, they seized new posts in the town of al-Mujawida.
There are several joint posts of the Republican Guard with the Iranian-backed Liwa Fatemiyoun, with the Syrian flag flying overhead, in Harabesh, Mahkan, al-Jafra, and al-Bulel in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor.
The Republican Guard in Deir ez-Zor numbers 400 members, led by the so-called Samer Sofan, and go by the name of the al-Hadi group.
Samer Sofan is closely linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He and his three children who work in the IRGC recruit individuals who hold settlement cards from Deir ez-Zor, and open private centers in confiscated houses in Hawija Saker to teach the Shiite doctrine and later graduate these members from the Iranian cultural center in Deir ez-Zor.
According to a military source, the Republican Guard in Deir ez-Zor possess heavy artillery and rockets and full power over areas under their control. They are committed to complete confidentiality at work, and civilians are not allowed to approach their posts. The groups in Deir ez-Zor are supervised by Syrian nationals, all of whom are Alawites from the coastal regions, as well as a group from Iran.
Speculations
Members of the government forces speculate that the reason for deploying the Republican Guard is to limit the influence of the Fourth Division on the banks of the Euphrates River, which is known for conducting smuggling operations. The Syrian government distrusts the Fourth Division, especially after the mutiny of local commanders due to disagreements on smuggling routes.
The change is also due to the increasing disagreements between Iranian-backed militias and members of the Fourth Division in Deir ez-Zor. Moreover, the Republican Guard has been given posts adjacent to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) because their members are well trained on tactics of war.
There are several specialized members in the Republican Guard in Deir ez-Zor. Some are graduates from the al-Shaybani camp in Qasioun, Damascus, others from the Samad camp, and trained in air drops operation.
The presence of the Republican Guard dates back to late 2012, specifically in September, after the government forces in Deir ez-Zor failed to break into neighborhoods and to push away out of in the city center.
At the time, the government forces deployed reinforcements from the Republican Guard. They brought in 2,400 members led by officer Ali Khazam, who was killed less than a month later, and Issam Zaharaldin, who was killed in mysterious circumstances in late 2017.
After pushing out the Islamic State (ISIS), the Republican Guard returned to Damascus since its mission is to protect the Syrian capital, leaving behind few forces in Deir ez-Zor.
However, the military expert, Ahmad Rahal, ruled out the presence of reinforcements of the Republican Guard in Deir ez-Zor. He thinks that the only presence remains for the Fourth Division to cover for Iranian-backed militias and protect them.
He believes that “the Syrian regime has no power to face US forces since it does not have the financial and military capabilities or the authority to make decisions. There are only Iranian plans supported by Russia.”
“The Syrian regime does not have plans in Deir ez-Zor in places like Abu Kamal, al-Mayadin, and Ain Ali base. This region became a center of gravity for Iranian-backed militias, in addition to other regions like Sayyidah Zaynab and its surrounding, the Seventh Division in al-Kiswah, Iranian forces in Aleppo, and Hezbollah in some regions of Rif Dimashq Governorate,” Rahal said.
Protection of Iranian militias
The military expert told North Press that “the Syrian regime does not have the power to make decisions in places that have Iranian presence. Deir ez-Zor is under the absolute Iranian power, whereas the presence of the regime there is to legitimize the Iranian existence and protect militias taking cover under its flag when threatened.”
In a statement to North Press, Mustafa al-Naeemi, a researcher participating in the Arab Forum to analyze Iran’s policies, said raising the government flag in Deir ez-Zor “is considered a military deception, by which Damascus thinks it can prevent US strikes.”
Regarding the Iranian movements west of the Euphrates River in Deir ez-Zor, Rahal noted, “there is an Iranian and Russian escalation. As a result of its losses in Ukraine, Russia is pushing Iran and wishes to retaliate against the US in Syria, where it believes that the West and US are supporting the Ukrainian military, according to the saying that Americans do not bear losing.”
In early June, the Washington Post leaked US intelligence documents indicating that Iranian-backed militias were working on a new strategy to push out US troops from Syria.
Iran is arming militants in Syria to begin a new phase of attacks against US forces in Syria as part of new and broader efforts by Moscow, Damascus, and Tehran to force the United States out of Syria, according to the newspaper.
According to Rahal, Iran has made its intentions public, especially after the trilateral meeting with Russia and Turkey. Iran demanded US forces withdraw from Syria, was the spearhead in this standoff, and carried out several drone attacks that bombed the airport in Rmelan, leading to the killing of a US army contractor, to which the US forces responded with bombing posts of Iranian-backed militias.
He also noted that US forces are strengthening their bases and reinforcing the SDF in Deir ez-Zor. There is Russian and Iranian support for Iranian-backed militias as well.
The US and Israel have come to the understanding that Iran has crossed red lines and “the limited strikes will not do any good, and its intervention in the region must be limited” with an attack that “does not break Iran but rather puts it in its place to restore lines of engagement that do not threaten the US’ presence,” he noted.