QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – With nearly all votes counted, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s head of state since 2003, is set to become the country’s president for a third term. Preliminary data suggest that almost half a million more people voted for the opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, compared to the first round. Erdogan, on the other hand, gained only around 150,000 votes. Nevertheless, it was not enough to dethrone him.
Two weeks ago, 27.1 million Turkish voters had cast their ballots for Erdogan and 24.6 million for Kilicdaroglu. An additional 3 million went to two minor candidates, robbing either leading contenders of a win in the first round.
Kilicdaroglu’s opposition coalition had done worse than expected during the general and presidential elections on May 14. Turkey’s parliament will continue to be dominated by Erdogan’s Islamist-nationalist alliance. The opposition leader himself had severely under-performed. Some polls had predicted a Kilicdaroglu victory in the first round. Instead, he received 44.9 percent of the votes in contrast to Erdogan’s 49.5 percent.
Kilicdaroglu responded to the poor run by focusing on his anti-refugee rhetoric, saying he would “deport all 10 million” refugees in the country, of whom around 3.7 million are Syrians.
The opposition candidate also ramped up his verbal attacks against “terrorists,” suggesting Erdogan’s government were sympathetic to terrorism for initiating peace talks with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and having colluded with the Fetullah Gulen group, both of which are considered terrorist organizations in Turkey. Kilicdaroglu himself had been the target of such accusations by the president because of his conciliatory tone towards the country’s Kurds.
Both presidential candidates had attempted to court the third presidential candidate, Sinan Ogan, a far-right nationalist who had received 5.2 percent of the vote. Ogan had made any endorsement dependent on policies regarding refugee expulsion and the fight against terrorism, before choosing Erdogan, citing “stability”.
However, Kilicdaroglu had been able to clinch an endorsement from Umit Ozdag, the leader of Victory Party, a constituent member of Ogan’s alliance. Ozdag’s party had received 2.2 percent of the vote in the general elections.
With ballot-counting still underway, initial reports nevertheless suggest that Kilicdaroglu did not lose any popular support. In fact, with around 25.1 million Turkish citizens casting their ballots for him, he seems to have gained half a million voters.
These shortcomings were canceled out by greater support for the opposition in the coastal regions, as well as in the urban centers of Istanbul and Ankara. Overall, Kilicdaroglu received around half a million more votes in this round than the last. Erdogan gained around 150,000.
The YSP, a stand-in for the pro-Kurdish HDP party, had endorsed Kilicdaroglu in the first round. Before the second round, its leadership had reaffirmed their support for the CHP man after intra-party discussions, despite his veiled threats against Kurdish liberation movements.
This time, however, some Kurds held out. A few voters in the southeast may have decided to migrate to Erdogan’s camp, which has traditionally been the strongest party in the southeast. Most, it seems, simply stayed home. In Diyarbakir province, Kilicdaroglu lost up to 40,000 votes; in Van, nearly 30,000; in Urfa, more than 30,000. Only in Tunceli, Kilicdaroglu’s home province, did more people show up for him this time.
These shortcomings were canceled out by greater support for the opposition in the coastal regions, as well as in the urban centers of Istanbul and Ankara. Overall, Kilicdaroglu received around 270,000 more votes in this round than the last. Erdogan may have lost 100,000.
Nevertheless, it was not enough to dethrone him. While election observers have not filed any reports of fraud, the president’s control over institutions, the media, and security forces have no doubt unfairly favored him. The elections have not provided the historic change many had hoped for. Instead, they serve as a strong reminder of how entrenched Erdogan’s control over the country is.