IDLIB, Syria (North Press) – Recently, much is being said on a military build-up by factions of the Syrian National Army (SNA) on the frontlines with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) following the Turkish escalation against northern Syria since November 20 and Turkish threats to carry out a new military incursion into the region.
Since November 20, Turkish forces have carried out intense and wide spread ground and air bombardment against northeast Syria using fighter jets, drones and artillery, targeting military personnel of Syrian government forces and SDF and vital infrastructure.
On November 26, SDF’s Commander in chief Mazloum Abdi said Turkey was preparing for an attack against Kobani, Manbij and Tel Rifaat in line with US endeavors to convince Turkey not to do so.
Abdi said in a Zoom conference, the US and Russia oppose the Turkish attack which are “good stances.” However, “international response should be stronger for Turkey is determined to attack.”
Turkey’s Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar reassured his “country is going to carry out a military operation against northern Syria very soon.”
War propaganda
Media outlets affiliated with SNA said that Turkish foces sent reinforcements to the border areas with Syria via Bab al-Salamah border crossing in the countryside of Aleppo.
Regarding the credibility of such reports, Director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) Rami Abdulrahman said, “There are Syrian TV channels based in Turkey, and there are Arab ones here [Britain] whose affiliations are known: they support Erdogan in this media campaign.”
Abdulrahman told North Press, “Up to now, there is nothing signals buildups by the opposition factions or the Turkish forces in the countryside of Aleppo inside Turkey.”
He said that the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan “holds the key to the decision. The factions are run by Turkish intelligence; when orders are given, they will be ready.”
“Up to now, no orders have been given by the Turkish intelligence to these factions,” SOHR’s director said.
Similarly, a source denied that opposition factions may have received reinforcements in the northern countryside of Aleppo.
Needs political decision
Syrian military expert and defected Brigadier General Ahmad Rahal told North Press, “We have been hearing of build ups and preparedness by the National Army [SNA] since May,” the ex-officer said, indicating there is no order given up to now.
“Regarding the new operation, there has been many developments, as there was a green light given by Russia to open Syrian air space, while the US remains silent,” Rahal said.
“There has been condemnations that were no more than pro forma demarches” Rahal said.
However, when it came to the ground operation, matters took a different way, and “voices raised to prevent such an operation.”
The US, Rahal said, will definitely not give Turkey the green light for its ground operation. The Russian, however, claim they are against it, but they are negotiating.
Rahal made it clear Russia tries to compromise Menagh Military Airbase and Tel Rifaat town in return for Zawiya Mountain and south of M4 international highway.
However, if the SNA factions control Menagh and Tel Rifaat they will contact the Iranian-controlled towns of Nubul and al-Zahraa, and “this is rejected by Iran, they want SDF remain on their borders.”
Based on the abovementioned, “There is no political umbrella for the Turkish military operation.”
“Militarily, a leadership cannot launch a war without a political decision, it would fail. Even if victorious militarily, it would pay dearly politically,” Rahal noted.
Rahal ruled out a ground operation in northern Syria. And as for the air operation, “it is no longer possible, as Russia has closed Syria’s air space to the Turkish aircraft.”
However, he said it is likely that a limited operation be carried out on the outskirts of Menagh and Tel Rifaat.
“It is not obvious, there seems no operation but that is not impossible,” the military expert said.