Iraq heads for political solution
ERBIL, KRI, IRAQ (North Press) – Iraq has survived narrowly a crevice that could have led to a civil war, as calm returned again to sit-ins areas in the Iraqi capital Baghdad that was turned into a battleground in a night between supporters of Sadrist Movement including militants and other military factions paving the way for three scenarios, according to an Iraqi analyst.
However, the continuation of such calm cannot be guaranteed politically as the crisis of forming a government is still ongoing. It was the core of dispute between the two Shiite groups (the Coordination Framework and the Sadrist Movement) after snap elections, nearly 11 months ago.
The struggle reached apex when it turned into violent incidents late on August 29 which resulted in the deaths of 20 persons and tens of injuries following armed clashes in and around the Green Zone.
The area which witnessed clashes is the same where supporters of al-Sadr were positioned from which they stormed state institutions. Al-Sadr lashed out at his trend for being trapped in armed struggle.
As clashes developed amid local and global calls to exercise dialogue and calm, al-Sadr called on, in a televised speech, his supporters to withdraw from streets offering apologies to the Iraqi people and extending thanks to the security forces.
Minutes after the al-Sadr speech curfew was lifted in Baghdad and provinces after a day of an overall curfew declared on August 29 following events.
Supporters of al-Sadr withdrew from the outskirts of Parliament and the Green Zone in the capital Baghdad after being given a 60 minutes leeway by their leader to evacuate the area.
Iraqi political researcher Dr. Ihsan al-Shemmari said that after the military de-escalation, one of the scenarios should be met in order to distance the country from struggle and violence.
Al-Shemmari told North Press that one of the scenarios that should be taken into account is parliament dissolution and heading to new snap elections.
Calls for dialogue by different bids such as the one made by President Barham Saleh to have leaders of the Coordination Framework and Sadrist Movement on a round table to find a political solution may succeed, according to al-Shemmari.
In a speech commenting on the events on Tuesday, Saleh called on leaders of the Coordination Framework to contact Muqtada al-Sadr to alleviate him and to reach a decisive political solution focusing on new snap elections and forming a government to administer the country.
In a similar speech on Tuesday, Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi called for the formation of a committee to determine those responsible for violence and to restrict possession of arms to the state declaring he would leave office in time according to article 81 of the constitution if anarchy continues.
A third scenario following calm, al-Shemmari indicated to the probability of the return of the Coordination Framework to the parliament and to name the candidate for the next president.
At the same time the researcher warned that new endeavors of the Coordination Framework could contradict al-Sadr’s directives, which could be a reason for renewing the struggle.
On August 29 al-Sadr retired from politics just a week after his supporters left the outskirts of the Federal Court and a while before his supporters stormed the Presidential Palace and the Green Zone.
Al-Shemmari believes the upcoming period in Iraq would most be a smooth one to avoid naming losers or winners.