IDLIB, Syria (North Press) – Earlier in July, informed sources in the Syrian opposition told North Press that the armed factions of al-Fateh al-Mubin Operations Room, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are preparing for a military operation against Syrian government forces in the countryside of both Idlib and Aleppo Governorates.
This comes in tandem with ongoing military escalation and intense mutual bombardment, in which Russian drones have recently participated.
On the third day of Eid al-Adha, the HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani held a meeting with local leaders of Idlib, in which he said, “international and regional conditions imply that there is a great opportunity that this region will be liberated [from the government] militarily.”
Unprecedented escalation
A leader of al-Fateh al-Mubin Operations Room, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the factions, after nearly two years of almost complete cessation of military operations, are able to start a new military operation to restore the occupied areas by the Syrian government forces.
Since the beginning of July, several fronts south of Idlib and west of Aleppo have been witnessing an unprecedented military escalation, which is the first of its kind since the signing of the de-escalation agreement between Russia and Turkey in March 2020.
Although the de-escalation zone in northwest Syria is subjected to a Russian-Turkish ceasefire agreement signed in March 2020, the area witnesses frequent mutual bombardment despite the entry of the ceasefire into force.
In March 2020, Russia and Turkey reached an agreement in Moscow that stipulated a ceasefire, the establishment of a safe corridor, and the conduct of joint patrols on the M4/Aleppo-Latakia Highway.
The factions today, especially the HTS, are not closely linked to Turkish decisions, unlike other factions that follow them directly and receive direct support from them, according to the leader.
However, the HTS is still in coordination with Turkey, he added.
The leader expected the battle to begin from areas in west of Aleppo, in addition to many places near the cities of Maarat al-Numan and Saraqib, southeast of Idlib.
HTS presence embarrasses Turkey
Fears prevail among the people who live in Idlib of a new territorial barter between Russia and Turkey in the region. They fear that Turkey might give new areas in Idlib to Russia in exchange for letting it seize lands in the north and east of Aleppo.
The leader said that this is impossible for several reasons including the fact that the area held by the HTS in Idlib and other neighboring governorates has become very small.
“Giving Idlib or parts of it to the Syrian regime in exchange for the HTS obtaining areas in north and east of Aleppo is also impossible, due to the animosity between the HTS and Turkish-backed factions [also known as the Syrian National Army (SNA)] in that area,” he added.
Furthermore, “The demographics in these areas (the Kurds), prevents the HTS from entering them under Turkish mediation because the HTS is still on the terrorist lists, and its presence in Afrin and other areas is embarrassing Turkey.”
Related to Tehran Summit
The Moscow-based Syrian political analyst Nasr al-Youssef, believes that the escalation in Idlib and its surroundings is linked to the tripartite summit that will be held in Tehran on July 19 between the three sponsors of the Astana Peace Talks: Russia, Turkey and Iran.
“On the sidelines of these meetings, Erdogan and Putin will certainly hold a bilateral meeting there, and in this meeting Erdogan will discuss the military operation that he has been preparing for to take over Tel Rifaat and Manbij,” al-Youssef added.
In an exclusive statement to North Press, al-Youssef said that both Russia and Turkey will go back to the agreements of the Syrian regime control over the M5/Aleppo-Latakia highway.
The politician said that two years ago, the two parties agreed to conduct joint patrols on this highway, and Turkey pledged at the time to secure the highway and make it usable, but things did not go according to Turkey’s and Russia’s desires.
Despite that, al-Youssef ruled out that “Turkey hands over the highway and the surrounding areas to the Syrian regime and Russia, in exchange for winning Manbij and Tel Rifaat.
Regarding Russia’s recent airstrikes in Idlib, the analyst believes that Putin wants Erdogan to understand that despite Russia’s need to Turkey; it can hurt Turkey whenever it wants.
It is believed that in the end, Russia “will not oppose the Turkish military operation in northern Syria, claiming that they understand Turkey’s security concerns, and this was confirmed by the Russian Foreign Minister in previous statements.”