RAQQA, Syria (North Press) – Analysts and military personnel believe that the increase in kidnappings, assassinations, and intimidation carried out by Islamic State (ISIS) cells in Syria indicate the dangers of ISIS’ return in new ways after it was defeated by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the US-led Global Coalition two years ago.
ISIS claims responsibility for operations almost every day in northern and eastern Syria in general, and its former final stronghold in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor in particular.
Since the beginning of this year, ISIS’s operations have affected both civilians and fighters in different areas of Syria, from SDF members to the Syrian government forces and armed opposition groups.
On December 19, 2018, President Donald Trump declared that ISIS was 100% defeated, but 2020 witnessed 600 attacks in Syria and more than 1,400 attacks in Iraq that ISIS adopted.
The SDF continued its offensive, and in February 2019 launched the final siege on ISIS forces in Baghouz, the last holdout of the group in Syria. Baghouz fell on March 23, 2019, formally ending the caliphate’s claim to any territory.
At the peak of its success, the so-called caliphate spread across vast areas of Syria and Iraq, estimated by specialists to be roughly the size of Britain, but after a series of defeats, the militants lost their last stronghold in March 2019.
Fears of return
North Press documented 66 military operations that ISIS claimed its responsibility for in northern and eastern Syria since the beginning of the current year, including eight operations in Raqqa and its countryside, six operations in Hasakah countryside, 41 operations in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor, and 11 operations in the western and northern countryside of Deir ez-Zor.
50 people were killed and about 16 people survived the ISIS attacks, and some of them suffered injuries that caused them physical disabilities.
Hawl Camp’s administration reported 29 murder cases since the beginning of 2021, according to a special statement from the camp administration to North Press.
Muhammad Nour (a pseudonym), a worker in the Autonomous Administration institutions who lives in Tishreen farm, 35 km north of Raqqa, fears the escalation of ISIS attacks in Raqqa and its countryside.
Nour, a father of four, said that on February 8, ISIS cells infiltrated Kabash village checkpoint west of his village and killed three members of the Internal Security Forces, which brought his memory back to the years when ISIS militants controlled Raqqa.
“I didn’t go to work at that day, and I searched for a weapon to protect my family,” he added.
Proactive steps
Caroline Rose, an American political analyst studying extremist groups, said that CJTF-OIR (Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve) should reassess its strengths in both Iraq and Syria, especially after the massive drawdown and relocation of bases in light of the Trump administration in 2020 despite the increase in ISIS attacks.
She added in an exclusive statement to North Press that the Global Coalition must adopt a more proactive approach against ISIS, shifting some of its focus from defending northeastern oil fields and land patrol activities in northern and eastern Syria to proactive steps against ISIS.
Rose believes that it is possible that ISIS will continue to make advances as ISIS agents take advantage of the weak security situation and the power vacuum in Syria, which will strengthen its control over the small towns and villages in eastern and central Syria.
“[CJTF-OIR] will require a heavier reliance on partner forces in the region and neighboring bases that provide necessary operational, logistical, and intelligence support (such as bases near the border in Iraq),” she said.
The American analyst stressed that the only thing preventing ISIS from returning is preventing the cells from reaching sites of strategic depth through assassinations, attacks, IED operations, and harassment.
Eliminate ISIS remnants
“[ISIS] has been territorially defeated and no longer able to sustainably occupy any territory in Iraq and Syria,” said Colonel Wayne Marotto, spokesman for the US-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS.
In an exclusive statement to North Press, Marotto described ISIS activities in Syria and Iraq as “crippled.”
However, he also said that ISIS continues to practice the insurgency by using hit-and-run tactics, kidnappings, assassinations, and intimidation of local leaders and security forces to expand its influence in rural areas.
He added that ISIS is resilient and still poses a serious challenge, but the constant pressure from security partners in Syria and Iraq is preventing the resurgence of remnants of ISIS.
SDF official spokesman Kino Gabriel said that the political and military support for SDF is sufficient to eliminate the remnants of ISIS cells, whether materially or intellectually.
He added that they are continuing with anti-terror operations while trying to strengthen relations with residents of liberated areas, especially in the desert border areas, to combat what remains of ISIS cells.
Regroup another day
According to observers interested in extremism, the Turkish military operation in 2019 in the areas of Sere Kaniye (Ras al-Ain) and Tel Abyad (Gire Spi) created optimal conditions for ISIS operatives to regroup again.
These conditions have increased the opportunities for and fears of the return of the ISIS, which is striving to free its members, leaders, and their families from Hawl Camp and prisons that located within SDF-held areas, as these prisons contain thousands of operatives, most of whom surrendered and were arrested in the last battles to eliminate ISIS in Baghouz eastern Deir ez-Zor in March 2019.
In late 2020, Turkish-backed armed opposition groups’ outlets published photos of Iraqi families in the city of Sere Kaniye, sparked widespread controversy on social media and among the displaced from the city.
Orhan Kemal, a media activist from Sere Kaniye, told North Press at the time that evidence proves that these families are linked to ISIS, especially after the publication of photos of ISIS banners in the city of Sere Kaniye during a demonstration in October.
In February, the SDF arrested the perpetrator of the assassination of the co-chair of the town of Tel Shaier, Saada al-Faisal al-Hermas, with her vice-chair Hind Latif al-Khudair. He said that ISIS agents promised him support from Turkey and to transfer him there if he was discovered.