Ein-Issa – North-Press Agency
Simav Hassan
On June 15, 2015, the bordering town of Tal Abyad entered a new phase in the Syrian crisis developments since 2011, where the black flags disappeared and the Islamic State group (ISIS) left no traces. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) took control over the town and the border-crossing between the Turkish town of Akcakale and the Syrian town of Tal Abyad, ending the rule of ISIS militants. SDF fighters also managed to cut off an ISIS supply route linking Tal Abyad with the Syrian city of Raqqa.
The control of Tal Abyad in coordination and partnership between the SDF and the U.S.-Global Coalition was a blow to ISIS, which was strengthening by the main supply route between Raqqa and the Turkish borders, where the town was one of the main routes through which foreign jihadi militants and supplies flow from Turkey to ISIS-controlled territories in Syria and Iraq.
It was also a gateway to the black market for oil which was being pumped from ISIS-controlled production fields in eastern Syria.
Tal Abyad is the most important town in the city of Raqqa and has a border crossing with Turkey. It was named Tal Abyad due to an archaeological hill nearby, it is about 100 km north of Raqqa and was one of the rich towns known for its ethnic diversity, where Kurds, Arabs, Armenians and Turkmen lived side by side.
The gate from Turkey to Raqqa
Charlie Winter, a jihadi scholar Quilliam Foundation, a London-based-based counter terrorism think tank says that, Tal Abyad was "the stronghold of ISIS for some time, and was described as the gateway to Raqqa, and it is certainly of strategic importance because it is a bordering town through which equipment and recruited militants were passing from.”
Tal Abyad border crossing is one of the eleven border crossings on the borders between Syria and Turkey, and it is considered as a vital trade gateway between the two countries and it separates between the city of Tal Abyad in the Syrian governorate of Raqqa and the city of Akcakale in the Turkish governorate of Urfa.
The Syrian opposition groups, or what was then called the Free Army, which then dissolved within Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra took control over the border crossing in early 2013, before ISIS took full control over the governorate of Raqqa in 2014.
Irina Zuckerman, a national security analyst told North-Press that, Tal Abyad wasn't only a major smuggling point for foreign fighters and weapons to Syria directly across the Turkish borders, but many jihadi fighters surrendered to Turkish forces while they were there.
"What does this tell us about the Turkish security which allowed many foreign fighters to enter Syria near its borders (and often through Turkey as we know)? And what happened to the captured fighters?", she wondered.
Syrian opposition groups with Turkish support returned to take control over the town in mid-October of this year, as part of the so-called "Peace Spring" operation, which Turkey argued that, its goal was to protect its national security.
Irina Zuckerman says that, Tal Abyad will return to a transit point again "whether by ISIS, by other groups or by similar groups to ISIS in the future".
"Looking at Turkey's history and its role in this particular issue, there is a good reason to believe that, the region won't simply be a 'safe zone' away from People’s Protection Units (YPG) fighters, where Turkey had no reason to worry about the YPG attack, as nothing happened on its part", she added.
For his part, Konstantin Kramer, a politician and military relations expert says that, "Ethnic cleansing will remain, and minorities are afraid to return to an area where jihadists threaten to behead those they consider as infidels. But in general, the region will be avoided by Syrian refugees living in Turkey, because these groups are criminals".
Crossing point
In a tent in Roj camp for IDPs in Derik in northeastern Syria, where one section of the camp is sheltering women of ISIS militants, Cassandra Budagh sits on a red dotted bed, who is from Belgium and followed her husband who joined ISIS. “I entered from Turkey to Syria via Tal Abyad border crossing, the door was open and the Turkish army was there", Cassandra, who recently abandoned the veil said.
“The army was there, they said hello to me and I entered. All the migrants (Muhajirin) come and go. There was no problem entering and leaving the migrants and the FSA,” she added sarcastically.
To the east to al-Hol camp, where Budagh-likes cannot go out without a veil, the Azerbaijani woman Ulker, while she was talking about the death of her husband in Syria, said that, she entered with her Turkish-nationalized children from Turkey to Syria via Tal Abyad border crossing a month after her Turkish husband, Ahmet Ince had entered in the early 2015.
Ulker, who was studying political science in Azerbaijan, confirmed that, their entry in the early year was easy at the border crossing, especially since the Turkish husband was waiting for them at the Syrian side.
From inside the prisons, where ISIS members are housed, voices appear repeating the same story, "The road is open for migrants from Turkey into Syria via Tal Abyad border crossing".
The Australian Hamza al-Baf, known as "Abu Rayyan" said that, the way he and his four brothers entered from Turkish province of Sanliurfa to Syrian town of Tal Abyad was carried out by ISIS vehicles, which transported them via the border crossing in early 2015 "without any obstacles by the Turkish army".
"Sanctuary of jihadists"
Today, Erdogan threatens to return ISIS members back to their countries, while Turkish media outlets are promoting this decision, publishing news of the return of these members after completing their legal procedures.
"Erdogan is threatening to send them back to their countries of origin, but we know that some of them have turned into fighters and are likely to have returned to Syria, where Turkey has supported militias which have wreaked havoc in northeastern Syria and have expelled the minorities", said Irina Zuckerman, the national security analyst.
"The fact is that, Turkey wants to create friendly areas like Idlib in northeastern Syria, and the SDF has been an obstacle. In light of this information, it is quite clear that the future of Idlib, which is under Turkish influence, will be repeated in Tal Abyad", she added.
While Konstantin Kramer, a politician and military relations expert argued that, despite the recent separation of Turkish-controlled areas in northeastern Syria from its areas of influence in Idlib, "it is certain to assume that, this enclave will also become a safe haven for jihadists and terrorists, contrary to what Turkey claims".
"ISIS spokesman was living in a village near Jarablus, and al-Baghdadi had a building in Jarablus and he was planning to go there before a U.S. raid killed him in Idlib", he added.
All data indicate that, the black flags may return via Tal Abyad border crossing, or through the ports opened by Turkey in its military operations in northeastern Syria, which will cost the countries of the Global Coalition for another five years or more to eliminate ISIS, which its sleeper cells remain active, or any associated organization, and analysts agree that, the return of refugees from Turkey to areas controlled by Turkey and its backed armed opposition groups is nearly impossible.