Failure of Putin-Erdogan agreement will lead to liquidation of opposition groups in Idlib – Turkish affairs expert
North-Press Agency
Political analyst and Turkish affairs expert Sarkis Kassardjian told North-Press that the problems facing joint Russian-Turkish patrols attempting to pass the M4 Aleppo-Latakia highway are caused by a conflict of interest in the region.
Kassardjian stated that events would move towards armed clashes between Turkish forces and their affiliated armed opposition groups.
He believes that “in the end, these patrols will reach Latakia and complete their work, because the agreement reached will not allow Turkey to withdraw or circumvent it.”
On the 26th of April, Turkish forces, accompanied by members of armed opposition groups, attempted to forcibly disperse a sit-in which residents of Idlib and fighters from the armed opposition had organized against the passage of Russian military patrols, resulting in the death of at least one individual and the injury of three others.
Later, clashes took place between Turkish forces and the sit-in protestors, along with opposition groups present on the M4 highway, resulting in the killing of three people (one opposition fighter and two local residents) and the wounding of five others, according to field sources.
Kassardjian explained that the failure of the patrols meant the failure to implement the March 5th agreement reached by Putin and Erdogan in Moscow, and this would open the door to a military operation.
The analyst added that there is an alternative Syrian-Russian-Iranian plan, and it is impossible to discuss reconstruction or a political roadmap without Idlib’s return to Syrian government control, so a military scenario is the only possibility if the March 5th agreement fails.
Syrian government forces took control of large areas in the de-escalation zones in northwestern Syria before the announcement of the ceasefire agreement on March 5th.
Kassardjian considers the Turkish role clear here, and reveals the future of armed groups, whether they are radical Asian or Arab/local ones located along the M4 highway and near the countryside of Latakia, and that “in public it has no cover or legitimacy."
Kassardjian added that if Russian-backed Syrian government forces make the decision to launch an offensive to uproot these groups, it will not draw international condemnation. On the contrary, it may show that these groups are internationally prohibited and classified as terror groups.
He said: “These groups have no cover, as the world is aware of their international threat that may reach Europe and the United States. The closest scenario to reality is their liquidation in Syria.”
Kassardjian stressed that while some talk about Turkey’s intention to exploit opposition groups on other fronts, such as Libya, it remains difficult to achieve, and the closest scenario is to end their presence with a multilateral military operation, perhaps with Turkish participation.
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov announced that on the 15th of March, Russian and Turkish forces would conduct joint patrols on the M4 highway, which is a strategic hub crossing through the Idlib region.
Last Friday, Russian and Turkish forces ended a joint patrol on the M4 highway early for unknown reasons. The patrol was scheduled to reach the town of Neirab in the southern Idlib countryside.