Idlib issue is resolved, Turkey is the obstacle – Egyptian analysts

In parallel with the military advancement of the Syrian government forces on the ground in Idlib, northwestern Syria, which is the last stronghold of the Syrian armed opposition groups, Egyptian strategic experts have expected that the Syrian army would take control over the entire Syrian territories within a long or short period, but it is virtually “resolved”, in their point of view, especially in light of the Russian support for the government forces, the thing which has enabled them to reduce the controlled areas of the armed opposition groups over the past periods, and to move forward in achieving successive victories in the last strongholds of the opposition, and most recently in the city of Khan Shaykhun. 

However, the only obstacle according to the perception of the Egyptian strategic experts, is linked to the Turkish role, especially after the recent agreement between Washington and Ankara region the “safe zone”, and under the clamor which is being talked about concerning the region, its borders and its depth, based on the perception which is put forward by Turkey in that regard.

  

Idlib issue is writing its final chapters, according to the director of the Moral Affairs Department in the Egyptian Armed Forces Maj. Gen. Samir Faraj, who stressed to North-Press that the issue of resolving things in Idlib has become “almost finished in favor of the Syrian regime, backed by Russia, whether it is done for a long or a short time.

In any case, the result is in favor of the Syrian government, which has expressed its determination to control the field, while the problem remains in the Turkish role which is a clear obstructive factor in northern Syria, and its threats against the Syrian Kurds.

Faraj stressed that Turkey’s desire to control northern Syria remains an obstacle to put an end to the crisis, and it will remain the outstanding issue. Despite the agreement between the US and Turkey about the “safe zone”, but that doesn’t resolve the problem, and it is a fragile agreement on the basis that there are many differences between them concerning the attitudes and the trends of the Syrian Kurds. 

While some believe that by the end of Idlib issue, the Syrian crisis or the hottest chapter in it will end in favor of the Syrian government, observers say that the issue doesn’t stop at ending the armed opposition, because there are other rounds of “the international different calculations” and the ambitions of certain forces and projects, such as Turkey.  

Inevitably, those victories which are being achieved by the government forces push towards a different negotiating reality and different understandings according to Egyptian military and strategic expert, Maj. Gen. Talaat Muslim, who pointed out that the recent developments and victories are in favor of the Syrian government, and push to end the armed opposition groups in their last strongholds practically, but at the political level the situation is paving the way for inevitable new understandings over the Syrian issue in light of the new reality which has reflected in these recent victories and advances in Idlib.  

“The participation of the Syrian government in these understandings as (the victorious side) after its control over the territories, strengthens its negotiating and military position once the control of Idlib is completed, either in a long or short period”, Muslim told North-Press. 

The main criteria is related to the willingness of other parties (international parties) to resolve the crisis and to write the final chapter, according to the Egyptian military and strategic expert Maj. Gen. Nasr Salem, who stressed that there are overlapping and conflicting interests among the regional and international powers, especially the tripartite (the United States, Russia and Turkey), since they have special interests and understandings despite the differences in certain attitudes and the details of the Syrian crisis in general, “The United States, which supports the Kurds, doesn’t want to lose Turkey at the same time, and Russia, which supports the Syrian government, keeps the door open for contact with the Turks”, so “the form of the resolution of the crisis is based on the international understandings about the Syrian crisis”, Salem said. 

While the strategic expert Maj. Gen. Jamal Mazloum goes further by pointing out that the victories achieved by the Syrian government forces “may push Turkey to modify its stance and abandon its project in northern Syria” under the inevitable new developments on the ground, in addition to the political developments and the successive crises which pursuit Ankara.