Ankara still sees its interests with Washington
Washington – North-Press Agency
Hadeel Oueis
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently increased his threats of launching a military operation against northeastern Syria, in an attempts for more political gain inside his country. However, the situation Turkey is going through, in addition to the US objection against its threats, and to its tense situation in Idlib, all prevented Erdogan’s plans in the region.
While observers in Washington had predicted a catastrophe on the Syrian-Turkish borders last week. Turkey’s Affairs expert Steve Cook wrote in the Foreign Policy Magazine that “it was easy to realize why Erdogan, who wanted to win politically inside his country through ongoing threats to launch a military operation against northeastern Syria since 2018, which weren’t implemented, as Turkey still sees its interest in coordinating with the US and the American presence in northern Syria.”
For his part, former Turkish parliamentarian and researcher at the Institute for the Defense of Democracies Ikan Erdemir has told North-Press that, “it seems to some that the US is discouraging Erdogan from his position, but the reasons are way different, and related to the inability of Turkey to risk now, and in light of of Idlib’s card as a justification for an attack against northeastern Syria.”
He added: “Turkey has a large and influential army, but betting in eastern Syria will cost Turkey huge losses at a time, Erdogan’s popularity is deteriorating, where he wants to bring economic gains to the Turkish people who are unenthusiastic and opposed to any new wars in Turkey, or an attack in Syria which may bring losses for Turkey. “
Erdemir added that “Nowadays, Erdogan is gaining political power inside his country without ordering a single Turkish soldier to fight.”
According to Erdemir’s point of view, the Trump administration is doing well in eastern Syria, as it has prevented Turkey from rashness and unilateralism, and it’s still continuing to exert pressure for establishing a safe zone in which the United States will not allow any Turkish tricks to pass.
“US officials have openly informed their Turkish counterparts that CAATSA sanctions would have been applied to Ankara before they launch a hostile operation at the borders,” he said.
For his part, analyst Nick Short told North-Press that Turkey “knows how big its mistakes are against the United States and how it needs, on the other side, the relationship with Washington, and it knows that the consequences will cost it a lot, Turkey allows Russia’s Putin to create a deep crack in NATO by exposing the security of the allies for espionage of the Russians and ensuing sanctions will damage the Turkish economy, and the issue of deciding sanctions has not yet been put on the table with the conditions of the safe zone as it was when Erdogan threatened in a unilateral action. “
Pressure on Turkey
Kamal Chomani, a researcher at Tahrir Institute told North-Press that Europe is on the line of talking about a “safe zone” and plays a role in reinforcing the US position that it will not lose gains in Syria regarding its liberation from Islamic State terrorists.”
“While Europe has been silent on the campaign against Afrin, it now plays a role in putting pressure on Turkey to reconcile with the Kurds and all of northeastern Syria to maintain the status quo as it is, and to prevent Turkish incursions that Europe sees as ushering in new waves of chaos,” Chomani said.
According to Chomani, Turkey is closer than ever to try to join the European Union with the issue of Brexit, so what we will see from Turkey in the next phase will not be similar to verbal escalation, but more attention for the economy and peace