Analysts warn U.S. withdrawal could pave way for ISIS resurgence in Syria
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – U.S. support remains critical to preventing the Islamic State (ISIS) from regaining strength in Syria, analysts Caroline Rose and Colin P. Clarke wrote on Thursday in an article for Foreign Affairs.
They stressed that U.S. assistance—including intelligence sharing, counterterrorism training, and backing for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—is essential as Syria struggles with growing instability nine months after the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad.
The country is witnessing escalating sectarian violence, repeated Israeli strikes, and a resurgence of ISIS, which seeks to exploit divisions and undermine the fragile legitimacy of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The group, now in power under President Ahmad al-Sharaa, is struggling to maintain authority.
Despite being reduced to an estimated 2,500 militants; ISIS has expanded its operations. According to UN figures, the group carried out nearly 300 attacks in Syria in 2024, more than double the number recorded in 2023.
The attacks have included bombings in Damascus, assassinations in southern Syria, and ambushes against Syrian forces and the SDF. In June, a suicide bombing at a Greek Orthodox church in Damascus killed 25 people and injured 63, highlighting the group’s ability to strike beyond its traditional strongholds.
The analysts warned that Washington’s plan to draw down its 2,000 troops in Syria to 1,400 by the end of 2025, with a full withdrawal set for 2026, could create space for ISIS to reconstitute itself.
U.S. commanders have also cautioned that a premature departure may destabilize the region and weaken local partners’ ability to contain the extremist threat.