By Shella Abdulhalim
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – The recent Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus has sparked concerns regarding the potential consequences and the likelihood of a response from Iran.
Observers anticipate that Iran will refrain from direct confrontation and instead retaliate through its proxy forces in the region.
On April 1, Israeli airstrikes targeted the Iranian consulate building in Damascus, which is adjacent to the main embassy building, killing two generals and five officers in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon.
In response to the Israeli attack Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kan’ani stated that Iran reserves its rights to take countermeasures and will decide on the type of reaction and punishment for the aggressor. Additionally, Iran’s Ambassador to Syria emphasized that the country would deliver a decisive response to the Israeli regime.
No direct confrontation
Fabrice Balanche, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs, argued that Iran is highly likely to respond to the attack on its consulate in Damascus, since the airstrikes were viewed as a deep humiliation for Iran, “It is like Israel hitting Iranian territory.”
Regarding the form of Iran’s potential response, Balanche emphasized that Iran would avoid direct confrontation with Israel or the U.S., opting instead to utilize its proxy forces.
He also suggested that Israeli diplomatic representations abroad may become targets of Iranian retaliation.
While Manish Rai, a geopolitical analyst, noted to the possibility of missile or rocket attacks by proxies like Hezbollah, targeting Israeli settlements along the borders with Syria and Lebanon.
He agreed with Balanche, that Iran could act through its proxy militias or its elite Quds Force.
Rai noted that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, had already indicated that there would be an appropriate response.
Both experts believe that Iran will primarily seek a military response.
Syria as an arena for confrontation
According to both experts, Syria is already a site of confrontation between Israel and Iran. Israeli airstrikes on Syrian airports and pro-Iranian bases to hinder arms transfers to Hezbollah are common.
Balanche indicated that Iran seeks to harass American troops in eastern Syria through Iraqi Shiite militias.
He believes that the attack on the Iranian consulate may lead to an Iranian response on the Golan Heights, which is considered occupied Syrian territory.
In turn, Rai stressed that Syria will likely be the next battlefield for Israeli and Iranian confrontation.
He further explained that Iran has a good military infrastructure in Syria and by using that it can confront Israel on its doorsteps.
He suggested that Israel, in response, will not refrain from carrying out attacks across Syria.
”I am anticipating that Syria unfortunately will be dragged into this prolonged conflict,” he told North Press.
Rai stressed that Iran has already started taking deterrent actions. Tehran has asked IRGC’s operatives to go underground in Syria and also Iranians have started moving its long-range weapons to more discreet locations in Syria”
Regional escalation
Both experts express concerns about the risks of escalation. Balanche warns that if Iran retaliates heavily against Israel, regional escalation could occur, dragging Lebanon and Syria into the conflict.
Balanche predicts that Hezbollah will intensify its strikes on northern Israel but will need to be cautious not to provoke a full-scale Israeli attack that would result in Lebanon’s destruction.
According to Balanche, the Iranian retaliation could drag Lebanon and Syria into the conflict, prompting Israel to severe logistics routes from Syria for Hezbollah.
For his part, Rai emphasizes that the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the potential for another major conflict in the region could further destabilize the Middle East, disrupt international trade and commerce, and pose a threat to global stability.
He suggested that it can potentially start a chain reaction of attacks and counter-attacks that can result in the spread of the conflict in the whole Middle East.
The geopolitical analyst concluded that “This can be a disastrous situation not only for the region but for the whole world.”