By Stella Youssef
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – In the aftermath of the attack on American soldiers in Jordan, all eyes are on the U.S. to see its response. President Joe Biden said on Jan. 22 that he decided how to respond to the attack that resulted in the killing of American soldiers by Iranian-backed militias. Meanwhile, Iran warns that they would respond decisively to any attack on its territory, its interests, or Iranian nationals outside its borders, according to state media.
Officials of the Administration were apprehensive of this since the Israel-Hamas war has begun on Oct. 7, 2023, knowing the U.S. will be required to make a strong response, which would potentially lead to broader conflict.
U.S. response
Fabrice Balanche, an associate professor and research director at the University of Lyon 2 in France, said that Washington is well aware that Iran is behind such attacks, but as Biden stressed they have no desire to have a “wider war” in the Middle East.
Iran wants the Americans to leave Iraq in 2024 and it will increase military pressure until it obtains it willingly or by force, according to Balanche.
“Joe Biden is at an impasse, he neither wants an escalation in the Middle East nor wants to be seen as a coward.”
U.S. soldiers have been killed, “so the American response must be sufficiently dissuasive, because the American people would not understand if their children are not avenged,” Balanche said.
He pointed out that nevertheless “hitting the perpetrators risks worsening the situation for American troops who would see themselves harassed throughout Syria and Iraq by a multitude of elusive militias.”
If the U.S. hits Iran directly, “thousands of missiles would fall on Israel and the Houthis would close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. However, we are in an election year in the United States and such a conflict would certainly give victory to the more isolationist Republicans,” Balanche said.
Biden knows that Iran’s objective is to push it into strong reprisals against the Shiite militias in Iraq so that the government of Mohamed al-Sudani demands their immediate departure. Similar to 2020 after the death of Qassem Souleymani, but the Iraqi government at the time did not follow up, he added.
Meanwhile, Myles Caggins, former spokesman of the U.S.-led Global Coalition and non-resident senior fellow at the New Lines Institute for Research and Strategy, said that politics will influence Biden’s decisions, as he is being pushed by republican politicians to make very strong attacks against Iran and Iranian-backed militias.
Caggins anticipates the U.S. will conduct very visible airstrikes where the Pentagon will release videos of the destruction that happens from the airstrikes.
He believes, “Pentagon will talk about doing airstrikes on facilities that Kata’ib Hezbollah is using to manufacture drone weapons.”
The senior military researcher pointed out the U.S. is likely to conduct a cyber-attack and impose more sanctions on Iran as part of its response.
U.S. withdrawal from Middle East
Balanche argues the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and Syria as Biden has sought since his election in 2020, was delayed due to the sudden U.S. departure from Afghanistan in August 2021.
If he had withdrawn from the region, “He would have been accused of weakness from the Republican camp,” he said.
“Withdrawing American troops in the context of the conflict in Ukraine and the war in Gaza would be interpreted as a retreat against Russia and Iran, which would thus totally dominate Syria and Iraq,” he pointed out.
On the other hand, Caggins said that when U.S. troops are harmed in Syria and Iraq, the American people start to question the Biden Administration on why they have troops there. He, however, believes that “America will continue to have troops in Iraq as well as in Northeast Syria.”
Victoria Nuland, Acting U.S. Deputy Secretary of State told CNN Turk on Tuesday “The United States is not withdrawing from Syria.” The decision of the withdrawal is not yet taken, according to the official.
Impact on Northeast Syria
The United States is continuing to partner with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Caggins said.
He added the U.S. is aware that there are more than 10,000 ISIS militants in detention, and there are dangerous women and children in the Hawl Camp in northeastern Syria.
The training and the support that the Global Coalition forces have provided for the SDF over the past few years can be seen in its latest raid in the camp, which was successful after receiving good intelligence from the Internal Security Forces of North and East Syria (Asayish), Caggins pointed out.
The Asayish arrested 29 individuals suspected of dealing with ISIS as part of Operation Humanity and Security, an anti-ISIS campaign launched on Jan. 27 with the participation of the Coalition, in the camp.
Caggins stressed the world has to solve the problem of ISIS families in Northeast Syria and “take back their ISIS family members and take back the detainees.”
Furthermore, he reiterated the need to establish a system of trials and prosecutions for the ISIS members so they can have proper sentences for their crimes.
Conversely, Balanche speculates that a potential departure of American troops from Iraq will necessarily lead to the evacuation of those located in Syria, of which Turkey and the Syrian government will take advantage and attack the SDF and areas of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES).
Under these conditions, the ISIS detention centers and the Hawl Camp will no longer be monitored and the group, taking advantage of the chaos, may try to free the prisoners, as once happened in 2022 in Hasakeh Governorate, the French researcher added.
As for the families of ISIS members, he said, “In France, the subject is very sensitive, the government is afraid of the reaction of public opinion if it repatriates them.”