By Muaz al-Muhammad
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Russia’s preoccupation with the ongoing war in Ukraine coupled with paralyzing sanctions has not prevented Russian decision-makers and observers alike from monitoring the military developments in northern Syria, especially the recent Turkish attacks on the region.
There is a consensus among Russian observers that the region is on the brink of a new phase, with Turkey seeking to disrupt the already faltering political settlement efforts in Syria and backtrack on earlier agreements on this course.
Reports and political analyses within Russia suggest that Moscow’s relations with Ankara have cooled due to the Turkish escalation in northern Syria. This escalation, added to other heated steps taken by Ankara such as the revival of arms deal talks with Washington and the leniency towards Sweden’s NATO membership, has caused unease in Russia.
According to Denis Korkodinov, President of the International Center for Political Analysis and Forecasting based in Moscow, the recent Turkish escalation is a mere continuation to Ankara’s approach of maintaining instability in the country, supporting terrorist groups like the Islamic State (ISIS), and pushing the situation in northern Syria and other parts of the country into the starting point.
“The escalation creates security gaps fall in the interest of terrorist groups which have recently boosted their operations in various regions of the country,” Korkodinov said.
Economic dimensions
Dmitry Kim, an international affairs analyst who agreed with Korkodinov, said the recent Turkish actions of destroying infrastructure facilities create dire living conditions that may push massive numbers of the region’s inhabitants to consider migration as the only option after turning their residences into uninhabitable and underdeveloped places.
He emphasized that it is crucial for the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) to prioritize and bring international attention to the Turkish bombardment, elevating it to an international issue concerning human rights and international organizations. This will shed light on the urgency and gravity of the situation in northern Syria.
In his statement to North Press, Kim warned of additional objectives behind the Turkish escalation. He pointed out that Ankara’s intention is to bring about demographic change in the northern regions as part of a long-term plan. This plan aims to resurrect the Turkish aspiration of gaining control over these areas, even if it is done indirectly.
Message to guarantor states
Sergey Persanov, a strategic affairs expert, does not rule out that the recent Turkish escalation aimed at sending a message to Russia and the U.S., the guarantor powers of the 2019 ceasefire agreements in northern Syria.
According to Persanov, the message is that the Turkish approach to the situation in northeastern Syria will remain one-sided and does not take into account the necessity of adhering to a comprehensive settlement in Syria based on ending the war in the country.
With the U.S. and Russia preoccupied with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, among other things, Turkey saw an opportunity to engage in unilateral military action, Persanov told North Press in a statement.
Stalemate on normalization
In light of the recent events, Persanov said, Ankara is no longer interested in the normalization process with Damascus, which was strongly supported by Moscow.
The issue appears to be suspended by decision-makers in Turkey, or it has been delayed until further notice. This is evident in the cessation of the work of security authorities responsible for following up on the normalization process between Damascus and Ankara, according to Persanov.
Persanov rejected the idea that Moscow is less interested in the Syrian issue or recent developments in the northeast of the country. He expressed the opinion that, under the table, diplomatic relations are now active with Ankara.
The expert believed that a key factor that could motivate Russia to increase its efforts in northeastern Syria is the initiation of a normalization process between the AANES and the Syrian government.
He believed that progress on this path serves all parties concerned in returning stability in Syria and neutralizing external interference.