QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Long gone are the days when Beijing’s main intervention in the Middle East was training members of the Dhofar Liberation Front, a revolutionary militia which aimed to bring down the Gulf’s monarchies. Between 2005 and 2022, China invested more than $273 billion in the region – a majority in the very same Gulf kingdoms. It is the largest single investor in the Middle East. And its involvement is growing still. Could it bring about a solution to Syria’s ills, too?
North Press reported on China’s rising star (and Russia’s decline) in the Middle East not three months ago. China had taken the unprecedented step of sponsoring a Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. But it did not stop there. Since the deal, an Arab-China Business Conference was held in Riyadh last week, netting some $10 billion in bilateral deals. Saudi Arabia also became a dialogue partner to the Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a supposed counterweight to NATO.
Most worryingly to observers in Washington, Saudi Arabia recently proposed pricing its oil sales to China in Yuan, rather than US dollars. The proposal was endorsed at a BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting earlier this month, in which Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran participated as observers. In March, the UAE had already taken the unprecedented step of settling a gas deal with China in Yuan. Dubai free trade zones announced a 24% rise in Chinese companies this week.
While Chinese involvement in the Middle East continues to be mainly economic and ‘piggy-backing’ on the hard power of regional and global armies, Beijing has shown itself willing to get involved in regional politics, too. In early June, number of Gulf countries also jumped ship on a US-backed naval security agreement, choosing a Chinese-led initiative with Iran instead.
Last week, its leader, Xi Jinping, hosted Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas. Besides agreeing to a number of projects in the West Bank, including a solar power installation, a factory for solar panel production, a steel plant, and road infrastructure development, Xi also lent his support to Palestinian independence, “based on the 1967 borders.” In return Xi got the thumbs-up for a continued crackdown on the Muslim Uyghur minority in China’s west.
Not for the first time, observers have asked whether China would be willing to broker Syrian normalization, as well as the country’s reconstruction. Trade between the two countries has gone down to a trickle, relatively speaking. In 2021, China exported $482 million worth of goods to Syria. It bought only $1.21 million in return. Neighboring Iraq imported $10.7 billion worth of Chinese goods and sent products amounting to $23.3 billion back. Moreover, Syria is divided, at war, and in shatters.
Yet Syria is not an unattractive potential investment partner. Its Mediterranean ports are strategically located and fully functional; the country has considerable untapped oil and gas supplies. Syria is also essential in establishing a land bridge between Central Asia and the Mediterranean, a goal Beijing has pursued for years.
Politically, Syria fits into the Iranian-Russian axis. Much like its overlords, the country is beset by Western sanctions and looking east for investment. Its president, Bashar al-Assad, is witnessing somewhat of a comeback in the region – a move performed by the US’ Middle East allies, like Jordan, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, over Washington’s protests. Much like it did with Iran, China could aid in easing regional tensions and overcoming the US consensus on the Middle East.
For now, Beijing may prefer the relatively conflict-free markets of the Gulf over war-ravaged Syria (though it makes for a great movie backdrop). Easing Saudi-Iranian tensions was crucial for China’s mercantile interest in the region; ending Syria’s isolation less so. China has previously intervened on behalf of the al-Assad government, for example by vetoing UN resolutions allowing for cross-border aid into opposition-held territory. Yet, for the moment, Syria may not be sufficiently enticing to get involved further.
More importantly, Chinese investment in Syria will not solve the problems at the root of the country’s conflict. Syria’s souks are already oversaturated by ‘Made in China’ products, some of which have killed off local production. It does not need more. Reconstruction, where it is occurring, is largely in the hands of an al-Assad-linked business class. Any investment into the country will go directly into the pockets of government cronies. Syria needs investment. But, above all, it needs a long-lasting political settlement. China is unable to offer that.