IDLIB, Syria (North Press) – Political analysts and military experts believe that the recent speech of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly al-Nusra Front), on Aleppo, a message highlighting his “power and strength,” may just be a speech resulting from his weak position.
Al-Jolani’ speech comes at a time of serious military or political developments in Syria, including Damascus’ return to the Arab League and the Arab normalization with Syria, in addition to Russia’s continuous efforts to normalize relations between Damascus and Ankara.
Al-Jolani said, on May 27, that the map of battles in Aleppo will be changed in the coming two years.
“Aleppo is the gate to Damascus and it will be under focus for one or two years,” al-Jolani added during a conference held with Aleppo IDPs in Idlib.
A month ago, al-Jolani had said, in a meeting with Idlib tribal leaders, that HTS was far from weak, but had the strength to ‘explode’ and turn the tables of the war.
Since early June, northwest Syria has been witness to a military escalation between the two sides of the conflict. Russian warplanes, too, have launched renewed air raids on the region after months of cessation.
Disguise and diverting attention
Syrian military expert and defector Brigadier General Ahmad Rahal believes that everything al-Jolani has said about Aleppo is “disguise, diverting attention and attempting to project power.”
“There is confirmed information that al-Jolani regularly meets with [Syrian government intelligence chief] Ali Mamlouk, and that he is coordinating with [government security chief] Major General Hussam Louka and with Russian military intelligence; additionally, he is not far from the Russian-Turkish understandings,” Rahal noted.
“Al-Jolani realizes that the map is changing, and that land from the coast and parts of the countryside of Idlib may be handed over to the government, along with the border crossings, based on prior coordination to remove al-Jolani from the north to the opposition-held areas in the countryside of Aleppo,” al-Rahal said.
The military expert stressed that al-Jolani wants to present himself as the ‘godfather’ of the region and that he is the decision-maker and is able to control and manage all coordination should there be any cooperation with the Syrian government or Russia similar to the processes in southern Syria.
“Everything that matters to al-Jolani and his group is the economic control and the appearance that he is dominant, a decision-maker, and somewhat far from the Turkish decision. He also wants to show that he is able to control the region militarily, economically, and in security,” Rahal added.
“But all that does not mean that al-Jolani will wage a war and change the map,” Rahal said.
“The battles and changing maps are in the hands of the Russians and the Turks, and al-Jolani cannot take any unilateral action. He knows that the moment he starts a battle against the Russian, it will be his end.”
Compatible with Turkish rhetoric
Hussam al-Barem explained in his reading of al-Jolani’s speech that it is “a parallel message to that conveyed by Turkey, which does not contradict his speech on Aleppo. Thus, it is a Turkish orientation in one form or the other. It reflects Turkey’s direction in the region as it wants to swap Aleppo in return for other political files.”
Al-Barem believes that “the objective of al-Jolani’s speech and Turkish messages about Aleppo is clear, which is to find a safe environment for the return of Syrian refugees to areas under their control and power, enlarge their territory, and control a new economic pole that would help them pressure the [Syrian] regime and preserve their seat in the negotiation process on Syria in the long run.”
Al-Jolani tries to “establish an entity for himself in the region in order to discuss, negotiate, and build alliances with all parties but particularly with those who share a close ideology, that is, the political Islamist mainstream in Turkey and Qatar. That is why he keeps communications with these two parties. His alliance with them is based on shared interests, but he would be ready to separate once a political substitute is available.”
Al-Barem noted that “balancing compromises is bigger than al-Jolani. It lies with the Turkish side, which controls a large part of Syria. He could be a part of it, in one way or the other – or not. If an agreement reaches a certain phase, it may be handed over to Turkish-backed factions without the presence of al-Jolani.”