QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Uncertainty surrounds the camp of Turkish presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. In the last election, held on May 14, he fell behind the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, by five percentage points. He just about forced a runoff election on May 28. But it is a hard fall for a candidate whom most polls had favored to win, some even in the first round.
Most Turkish analysts suggest Kilicdaroglu will bank on attracting voters living abroad, those who did not vote the first round, a fraction of the 5 percent of Turks who cast their ballot for a third candidate, as well as by rearranging and unifying his opposition alliance.
“I don’t know if anyone knows that the elections are not over yet, and that anything is possible,” Turkish analyst Bekir Agirdir said in an article published by Turkish media on Sunday.
According to officials of Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP), which is the backbone of the National Alliance, the difference between the winning candidates in the first round is minimal. This is despite what the opposition camp describes as “manipulation” by the authorities, which are under the grip of the governing People’s Alliance, including the media.
The first round’s result shattered a multitude of pre-election opinion polls that indicated a National Alliance lead. This ignited a great controversy, as opposition parties hurled accusations at the authorities, including the major media outlets, of having sided with the current president during the first round.
Because neither candidate received more than 50 percent of the vote, a run-off will take place on May 28. It is the first time Turkey will hold such a vote.
Vote abroad
Some 3.4 million Turks are eligible to vote abroad, out of a total electorate of more than 64 million. They will cast their ballots from May 20-24.
Abroad, most of those who abstained from voting are thought to be closer to the CHP, including the Kurds, who are mostly loyal to the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).
It’s a draw
Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the votes of 49.52 percent of the electorate, or 27,133,849 votes in all, and Kemal Kilicdaroglu received 44.88 percent of the votes, or 24,595,178.
This result, according to the latest statements of the leader of the Republican Party, Ekrem Imamoglu, “no longer matters,” he said on Sunday. The second round will re-start with “zero-zero” draw.
“So next week’s election is the main one, the final match,” he added.
“We know the numbers of their ballot boxes, and we also know the numbers of their Anadolu Agency,” Imamoglu said referring to the state news agency. “They will not help us with anything, and for this reason we know that they are siding with power not with truth and justice.”
Media Propaganda
The CHP needs to “get rid of its internal discussions and accusations, find a way to communicate the idea to the public that the elections are still going on, and give them the feeling that it is not over yet,” Turkish analyst Bekir Agirdir said.
The candidate, Kilicdaroglu, hardened his rhetoric, as he said in his last statement that it is wrong to say “We are ahead, we won” or “We are behind, we lost”.
He urged voters to head to the polls. “This is no longer an election, it is a referendum. The result of the previous referendum is clear… Let those who love their country go to the ballot box!”
Kilicdaroglu focused on the millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey, and doubled down on promises to deport millions of refugees saying “isn’t that enough, should millions more come? So remember, you’re voting for yourself, not me. So come to the polls.”
Ogan’s votes are divided
On the other hand, the 2,800,000 Turkish citizens who voted for Sinan Ogan will not go to Kilicdaroglu or Erdogan, because these votes cannot be explained by nationalism alone. Rather, it is expected that it is a protest vote against both sides.
When the elections moved to the runoff, attention focused on the base of Turkey’s third-placed candidate, ATA Alliance’s Sinan Ogan, who won about 5 percent of the vote.
It is natural that some of these people will migrate to Erdogan, and some of them will go to the opposition, because of a difference of visions among Ogan’s base – between an opposition to Erdogan’s policies and a nationalist outlook. This alliance, that sees itself as the “key,” is unable to control its voters.
Although Ogan has a nationalist position, according to information and impressions from various sources, it seems closer to the People’s Alliance, led by Erdogan.
It became the most common question at the stage between the two rounds related to the extent of the voters’ support for Erdogan in the runoff, if Ogan, who has 2,796,370 votes, supported him, and whether they would move away from him because of his alliance with the Kurdish-Islamist Huda-Par party.
Ogan clearly declared his rejection of any relationship with Kurdish parties in general, but mainly the HDP, which declared its support for Kilicdaroglu.
Members of the Victory Party, led by Umit Ozdag, the founding party of the ATA Alliance (consisting of four small, right-wing parties: the Victory Party, the Justice Party, the Turkish Alliance and the Baladi Party), believe that 50 percent of Ogan’s supporters will vote for Erdogan because of their nationalist inclination.
On the other hand, the remaining percentage will be reluctant to vote for Erdogan, for two reasons: Erdogan’s alliance with Huda Bar, and ATA’s existence as a protest vote against Erdogan’s government. This means that any official announcement from the alliance to stand with Erdogan may cause a crack in its popular base.
Kilicdaroglu’s speech revealed a clear attempt to win ATA supporters by releasing nationalistic statements. He also directly attacked his rival, accusing him of playing the nationalist sentiment and working against their interests.