QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Around this time tomorrow it may all be decided. But for whom? Less than a day before Turkish citizens will choose a new government and president, the outcome is anything but certain.
For the first time since the election campaign began, the opposition’s road to victory is clearly the likelier option. On May 11, Mehrem Ince, another presidential contender, dropped out of the race after a deepfake sex tape of his likeliness was published. Despite the fact that he never polled above 2 percent, this has considerably widened the gap between the main opposition leader, Kemal Kilicdargolu, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to one recent survey, Kilicdarglu could clinch victory tomorrow, with 50,5 percent to the president’s 45,6 percent.
This is good news for the anti-Erdogan opposition, but it also increased the pressure on their camp. Ince, a former member of Kilicdaroglu’s CHP party, could not help but take a jab at his former colleague. “Let there be no excuses. Otherwise, when they lose the election, they [the CHP] will put all the blame on us on the morning of the election. They have no excuse,” he said.
The newest polls seem to have made an impression on Erdogan, though. In a televised interview, he promised he would leave if voted out. It is the first public admittance that he may not win these elections. In the same interview, the president also said he would scrap the 50 percent threshold for presidential elections, thereby effectively ending the two-round system. If none of the two leading candidates receives more than half of the vote tomorrow, a run-off election will be held on May 28. Current polls favor Kilicdaroglu in that election, by a wider margin.
Too many uncertain variables remain. Ten provinces in the south were devastated by earthquakes in February. Three million residents have been displaced. Half of them have not registered to vote in their current place of residence. How many will make the arduous and possibly traumatizing journey back for the elections is unknown. The Economist’s 1843 Magazine spoke to some of the affected, who resented having to vote for anyone at all in their current condition. The British magazine also reports that there are not enough state-organized buses to bring everybody to the ballot boxes.
Even if they did, it is unclear if it would help Erdogan or the opposition. During the 2018 presidential elections, around 53 percent of the 6.5 million voters in these 10 affected provinces cast their vote for the current president. Around 39 percent voted for one of the two main parties in the opposition coalition, or for the pro-Kurdish HDP. Some of the most-affected areas – Hatay and Adana – also leaned more towards the CHP in the 2019 municipal elections, while less-affected areas favoured Erdogan’s AKP. Yet many who will gather the energy to go vote will likely do so in protest of the current government, which was exposed as corrupt and ineffective in the wake of the natural disaster.
Expectations were likewise subverted outside of Turkey, where Turkish passport holders have been lining up to vote since April 27. Observers had predicted a lower turnout in Europe, given its pro-Erdogan bend (59 percent of expats voted for the president in 2018; at home it was 52 percent) and their disillusion with him, as well as the German government’s decision not to expand voting locations. Yet 3.4 million Turkish citizens cast their ballots this year, according to Yeni Safak, 400,000 more than in 2018.
Even if the Kilicdaroglu were to win, it is unclear what would happen next. Analysts assure journalists that an outright coup is unlikely. The armed forces are not unified and the election will be highly monitored. “The opposition plans to post at least two monitors to each of the 192,000 ballot boxes, carry out its own vote count and compare its numbers with those issued through the night by Turkey’s election board,” the Economist reports. Oy ve Otesi, a non-partisan NGO, will post another 70,000 observers. Widespread election fraud is unlikely, but the country’s Supreme Election Council could help the president, who appoints their members, on the margins. For example, if the results were extremely close, it could annul the election and force another one, as it did in Istanbul in 2019.
Black swan events – by definition exceptional – are less extraordinary in Turkish politics, and may yet derail the elections. Rumors of a ‘kill team’ sent from Georgia to assassinate the opposition’s front-man were spread by a pro-opposition journalist. Yesterday, May 12, Kilicdaroglu appeared at a rally in Ankara wearing a bullet-proof vest – a first. Even if Erdogan’s camp does not resort to violence in order to hold on to power, his voters may. After both the US’ and Brazil’s last elections, the losing candidate’s supporters stormed the legislature.
The opposition has consistently pushed the narrative of a radical change for Turkey after the coming elections, yet this is unlikely. Even if Kilicdaroglu wins the top job as a result of a unified opposition, things in parliament will look very different. There, both the ruling People’s coalition and the opposition National Alliance are polling at between 43-44 percent. The opposition could only achieve an outright majority by inviting the YSP (which will host the HDP’s politicians in these elections) into their camp; it currently polls at 9-10 percent. However, far-right figures within the opposition have categorically rejected such a move. Moreover, no constellation can hand the opposition a two-third majority, which they need if they want to amend Turkey’s constitution. Kilicdaroglu, even if victorious, risks having to rule by presidential decree.
The presidential candidate has promised Kurdish voters that he will free imprisoned HDP politicians, such as former leader Selahattin Demirtas, and civil society figures. This may fall way short of their demands. Speaking to TVP World, Hisyar Ozsoy, the HDP’s deputy chair, said they expected “recognition of the Kurdish language and Kurdish culture, increased powers of self-government, and the introduction of policies to reverse underinvestment in Kurdish-majority regions” from a Kilicdaroglu victory. “We want the possibility of using Kurdish in education and public services as the country’s second official language. Certain prerogatives should be transferred to local authorities,” Ozsoy explained further. Given the CHP’s far-right bedfellows and likely large AKP minority in parliament, that seems improbable.
For now, Kurds main hope is to make it through the vote unharmed. Foreign elections observers posted to the southeast report of tension and fear about what will happen tomorrow. Nobody can comfort them, because nobody knows.