Egypt, Qatar pushing back against Saudi-Syrian rapprochement
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – A meeting between the Gulf countries, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq was held in Saudi Arabia in order to discuss the possibility of Syria’s return to the Arab League, a regional diplomatic body, which Bashar al-Assad’s government was barred from at the onset of its brutal crackdown against Syria’s opposition in 2012.
The Saudi monarchy began calling for Syria’s return two weeks ago, after having funded opposition militias in the early years of Syria’s civil war. Damascus and Riyadh agreed to re-open consulates and resume flights between the two countries this week.
Saudi Arabia is set to host the next Arab League summit this May. It hopes to convince fellow Arab states to reinstate al-Assad until then.
Yesterday, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister stated that all attending ministers had “stressed that a political solution is the only solution to the Syrian crisis, and the importance of having an Arab leadership role in efforts to end the crisis.” He also revealed that they had agreed to “set up the necessary mechanisms” to do so and hold “intensifying consultations among Arab countries to ensure the success of these efforts.”
However, not everybody is convinced. Qatar, Kuwait, Yemen, Morocco and even Egypt have poured cold water on a swift normalization procedure. As a previous North Press report highlighted, Kuwait’s ruling royal family is likely to wait for regional consensus before supporting Syria’s return.
Qatar has defied Gulf pragmatism by supporting Syria’s opposition materially and diplomatically. Yemen’s government wants al-Assad to end its support for the Houthis; Morocco wants the Syrian president to stop recognizing an independent West Sahara.
Egypt stands out, as it has previously made large strides towards normalization. In March 2019, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs stated that his country had “no conditions for Syria’s return” to the Arab League, before walking back the statement. In March 2021, it again called for normalization with Syria.
Previously, it appeared like Egypt would follow Saudi leadership in rapprochement with al-Assad. Cairo is heavily dependent on money from the Gulf country. Egypt’s government itself is also re-forging ties with Turkey, which were severed after the former deposed its Muslim Brotherhood-linked president in 2013. Riyadh’s relations with Ankara had begun to thaw the year before.
However, Cairo has now pumped the brakes on Syria’s return to the Arab League. According to Middle East Eye, Egypt’s leadership is weary of going up against the US on Syria.
Washington has repeatedly rejected any attempts at bringing al-Assad back into the fold of Middle East politics. Crippling US-imposed sanctions continue to be in place for anyone investing in Syria.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia also support the two opposing parties in Sudan, where an attempted coup took place over the weekend, adding to the tension.
Syria’s re-admission into the Arab League would only take a majority vote by its 22 members. Most Gulf countries, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, Algeria and, most recently, Tunisia, seem to support al-Assad’s return. Smaller member states, such Comoros, Djibouti and Somalia could surely be coaxed by heavy-hitters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to back the decision.
If held today, the vote would likely go Syria’s way. Countries pushing for normalization – like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Jordan – do not risk a policy failure. But if such a decision were made prematurely, before all League members supported it, it would risk undoing the fragile peace that the Middle East found in 2023.