Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement with Syria West’s failure
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – The first visit of Faisal Mekdad, Syria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, to Riyadh on Wednesday, April 12, is the latest sign of the Damascus’ return to the international stage – at least in the Middle East.
During his visit to Saudi Arabia’s capital, Mekdad and Saudi’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Waleed al-Khuraiji, reportedly agreed to resume consular services and flights between the two countries. They also discussed Syria’s return to the Arab League, a 22-country regional council. Saudi Arabia surprisingly signaled its willingness to allow the government of Bashar al-Assad to re-take its seat last week after over a decade since its expulsion.
In recent months, Saudi Arabia has been quieting the aggressive foreign policy it has been known for, for the past ten years. In March, a Chinese-brokered deal eased tensions with long-time foe Iran. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister is set to visit Damascus before the end of the month.
Saudi Arabia is not alone in its efforts to bring al-Assad back into the fold of Middle Eastern politics. Besides long-time allies Iran and Lebanon, Jordan, the UAE, Tunisia, Algeria and Oman have all encouraged rapprochement with the Syrian government. Egypt, Bahrain and Turkey are warming to the idea as well.
Yet how exactly normalization will be implemented is unclear; major hurdles remain. Saudi Arabia wants to restore stability to the region. It could also gain from Syria’s reconstruction. After the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990), for instance, Saudi Arabia poured billions into Lebanon’s reconstruction, in part to buy influence in the country.
More pressing, however, is the booming trade in Captagon, a cheap amphetamine. Captagon is not only produced mainly in Syria, but is directly tied to the al-Assad government. An Arab News investigation says the government’s Fourth Division, which is headed by al-Assad’s brother, and Lebanese Hezbollah militia are deeply involved.
Much of the drug’s supply ends up in Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, where it can be sold for many times its production value. According to the same investigation, between 2020 and 2021, Saudi customs intercepted some 190 million pills. Captagon has caused a health crisis in the kingdom; authorities have been unable to stem the flow of pills.
To induce Damascus to halt its production and distribution of the drug, Riyadh will have to offer more than just political concessions. The trade is among the Syrian government’s main sources of revenue. In 2021, Damascus made around $5.7 billion from the sale of Captagon, says Arab News. The drug trade is so central to the government’s survival that Syria has been described as a ‘narco-state’.
As the Wall Street Journal points out, Syria’s introduction back into the Arab League is no panacea to the country’s ailing economy and ongoing violence. Many League members – such as Morocco, Yemen, Kuwait and Qatar – still oppose the move. Even if they were in alignment, it may take years to convince the West to lift the crippling sanctions imposed on the country that would allow the region to freely trade and invest in Syria. To truly halt Damascus’ reliance on drug smuggling as a source of income, Saudi Arabia would have to offer material support. Yet that would put it in the crosshairs of Washington. For the moment, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to risk it.
In fact, the US congress passed the CAPTAGON Act in September of last year. The legislation calls on the government to use its diplomatic weight to halt Syria’s drug trade – not through concessions but through further pressure.
A decade ago, Riyadh warned the US that it would conduct a “major shift” away from its ally if Washington did not start acting against Bashar al-Assad and stop engaging with Iran. Today, the shoe is on the other foot. The US has scrambled to oppose Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement. The State Department said this week that, “our stance against normalization is very clear. We will not normalize with the Assad regime and we do not support others normalizing absent authentic and progress toward a political solution.”
Part of the problem is that the governments pushing for normalization have a point. Syria’s population is impoverished and getting poorer by the day. US sanctions have not hurt the government, but have impeded the entry of technical equipment into the country, reconstruction, and for locals to conduct trade legally with its richer neighbors. As a recent open letter by Syria experts to the Biden administration points out, the US policy towards Syria is counterproductive and uninspired.
Yet simply restoring bilateral ties with al-Assad is not enough. Governments should continue to push for UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which calls for a ceasefire, negotiations, and to work towards free elections. Geir Pederson, the UN’s special envoy to Syria, met with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal to stress this point. Faisal pledged to push for a solution that “preserves Syria’s unity, security, stability and Arab affiliation.” This does not go far enough.
Governments should establish bilateral ties with non-governmental organisations in Syria as well. Support for democracy in the northeast of the country, which is administered autonomously, could be crucial for leaving the country better off than before a decade of war. It is clear a number of autocracies across the world are eager to restore ties with al-Assad with little to no political demands. Lacking a cohesive political roadmap, support for such a settlement will undoubtedly grow.