QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – An Azerbaijani-imposed blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian exclave both countries have fought multiple wars over, has entered its 80th day.
According to Amnesty International, 120,000 Armenians have been trapped in the mountainous region since Dec. 12, 2022. The blockade has resulted in shortages of food, medication, gasoline, and electricity. Schools were closed, then reduced to four hours per day; hospitals cannot function properly. At least one person was killed by the siege when his emergency transfer to Armenia was blocked. Roughly 1,100 residents of Nagorno-Karabakh are stranded outside the region, unable to return.
Such suffering has come at the hands of only a few dozen Azerbaijani ‘eco-activists’, who have blockaded the Lachin corridor, Nagorno-Karabakh’s only lifeline to Armenia proper. The protestors say they want the Republic of Arstakh, the autonomous Armenian government in Nagorno-Karabakh, to allow Azerbaijani environmental officials to visit mines in the region they allege are illegal.
Observers have questioned their motivations. For one, many protestors seem to work for the Azerbaijani government or its armed forces, and have no background in environmentalism. Students have been bused in to take part in the event, too. The Baku government, which itself bans political protests and has grown rich off of gas and oil, has provided the eco-activists with tents. Azerbaijani flags and nationalist chants mix freely with environmentalist placards and demands at Lachin.
The government of Azerbaijan is interested in pressing Armenia. Its armed forces assaulted Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020, taking back much of the territory Armenian forces had claimed after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and then some. Baku’s long-term strategic vision is to unite Azerbaijan proper with the Nakhchivan exclave, which is sandwiched between Armenia, Iran, and Turkey. It has proposed establishing a land bridge – the so-called Zangezour corridor – which would run across the entire border between Armenia and Iran. By leveraging its control over Lachin it could force Yerevan to give in on Zangezour.
This would cut off Armenia from Iran and give Azerbaijan direct road and pipeline access to Turkey, its main ally, as well as European markets. Europe stands to profit, too. In July, it signed a deal with Baku to double gas imports at a time when the continent is looking to wean itself off of Russian energy. Azerbaijan also offers access to oil, gas and mineral-rich Central Asia, bypassing Iran and Russia.
Armenia is determined not to let that happen. A genocide and several pogroms from its Turkic neighbors to the east and west are within living memory. It has attempted to find peaceful solutions, initiating rapprochement talks with the Turkish government (which still denies the 1915 Ottoman genocide against Armenians), and sending aid to Turkey’s southern provinces after the Feb. 6 earthquake. The government in Nagorno-Karabakh has offered to let international environmental experts take a look at its mines, though this was rejected by Azerbaijan.
Yerevan also knows that it cannot do without powerful friends. Russia has long acted as a peacemaker in the conflict. Russian peacekeepers have been posted to the Lachin corridor, though have done little to prevent the ongoing blockade. At the moment, Moscow is mired down in eastern Ukraine. Some Armenian officials quoted by Al-Monitor suggest Russia may even favor the implementation of the Zangezour corridor, thereby giving it land access to Turkey.
On the other hand, Europe has largely forsaken the Christian nation in favor of a steady energy supply. The US is home to a vocal Armenian diaspora, but has given the country next to nothing in security assurances, as Armenia refuses to give up its relationship with Russia and Iran.
Armenia is looking across the roughly 30 km long border towards the latter country for protection. Goods delivered from Iran have also helped Armenia escape its regional isolation. Conversely, Armenia gives Iran a strategic foothold in the Caucasus. Azerbaijan has increasingly become a nuisance to Tehran, as it has strengthened its relationship with Israel and incited ethnic Azeris in Iran to revolt against the government (to little effect).
For the time being, Iranian arms have not yet reached Armenian depots. Yet the Caucasian country is desperate to upgrade its army after the disastrous 2020 war. Azerbaijan has been supplied with the latest in military drone technology and arms by Turkey and Israel. Armenia has nothing comparable. “If we have to choose between annihilation as a nation or sanctions from America, I prefer the latter,” an Armenian academic told al-Monitor about arms shipments from Iran.
As the Azerbaijani government continues to terrorize the people of Nagorno-Karabakh for the third month in a row, unimpeded, Armenia is sliding ever-closer into Iran’s sphere of influence. Even if Armenian resilience perseveres this time around, Azerbaijan will likely use the Lachin pressure point again in order to get its way.
A firm diplomatic intervention by the West could still rein in Azerbaijan, stop Armenia’s slide into the Iranian axis, and end the suffering in Nagorno-Karabakh. Through its increasing dependence on Azerbaijani gas, Europe has involved itself in this conflict for better or for worse. The EU launched an observer mission in the region two months into the siege, on February 23; the 50 unarmed observers on the ground have no power to intervene. The coming months will show whether Europe’s commitment to human rights protection is any more genuine than Lachin’s protesting ‘eco-activists’.