QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Since the trilateral Turkish- Russian- Iranian meeting was announced in late 2022, Turkey has sought to reopen the Aleppo-Latakia international highway, also known as the M4, in coordination with Russia.
Ankara’s plans, which send strong signals that its bid for normalization with Damascus is serious, have been met with rejection across the Atlantic. Days ago, the US Secretary of State reaffirmed Washington’s opposition to rapprochement with Damascus.
On January 3, US Department spokesperson Ned Price said, “We’ve made very clear to all of our allies and partners that now is not the time to normalize relations, now is not the time to upgrade relations, and countries should be mindful of the atrocious human rights record that the Assad regime has inflicted upon its people over the past 12 years.”
The M4 Highway
Last week, a security source in Idlib told North Press that the Turkish intelligence services (MIT) had held a meeting with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS – formerly al-Nusra Front) and Ahrar al-Sham, a Turkish-backed faction, with the aim of discussing the reopening the M4 highway.
Moving pro-Turkey factions 16 km away from the highway was a key point in the 2020 Sochi agreement between Ankara and Moscow. Since then, Russia has accused Ankara of not delivering on its promises.
Russian and Turkish forces were unable to re-open the road in 2020 after mounting 24 joint patrols over the course of five months, from March up to August, as the patrols repeatedly came under attack from opposition-held territory, injuring Russian military personnel and damaging or destroying a number of Turkish vehicles.
An Idlib-based journalist, speaking on condition of anonymity, told North Press that people in northwest Syria, particularly IDPs, reject the reopening of the M4. It would end their hope of returning to areas controlled by Syrian government and Russian forces in north Hama, west Aleppo and north Idlib.
He added that locals of these areas are living near the M4. Their demand is that the areas be taken from Syrian government so that they may return home.
The same journalist says Hurras al-Din (an al-Qaeda affiliate), Ansar al-Islam, and Abu Bakr al-Siddiq armed groups also reject the plan.
The main topics discussed by MIT with HTS and Ahrar al-Sham are to distance those factions from the road and to guarantee that patrols not be targeted. A unilateral patrol is to take place before joint ones resume.
HTS rid itself of Muhajirin fighters (foreigners) who rejected the reopening plan. Others were sent to Ukraine via Turkey to battle the Russian forces there. “We saw [October 24] groups under Chechen leader of Ajnad al-Kavkaz and his 70 militants,” according to the journalist.
Over the past months, MIT held meetings with HTS in which the latter was asked to hand over lists of the most extremist factions and militants in Idlib.
Positive points for normalization
Journalist Darwish Khalifa says the bid to open the M4 is related to the normalization process between Damascus and Ankara. The latter wants to send positive signals that it has no intention to stay in Syria.
Khalifa told North Press that everything Turkey is doing is meant to send positive signals to the Syrian government before the Syrian-Turkish meeting takes place. Reopening M4 is a stepping stone that could usher in a new phase.
Damascus could benefit from reopening the highway by reviving its dilapidated economy. If the highway is reopened, Turkish goods could reach Damascus, according to Khalifa.
Iranian influence
Khalifa says Turkey told some Arab countries that its rapprochement with the “Syrian regime” would reduce the Iranian influence in Syria.
However, last week, Turkish presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin said Ankara welcomes Iran onboard normalization talks, indicating that a meeting of foreign ministers of both countries could take place in February.
Muaz Oglu, a Netherlands-based Turkish author, says that the “normalization policy with Damascus will produce nothing, owing to the presence of Iranians in meetings.”
Muaz Oglu says Iran is an effective player in the administration of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, so “it was not so happy about not giving it a role in this issue.”
Two weeks after the Turkish announcement that a trilateral meeting between the defense ministers of Russia, Turkey and Syria would take place on December 28, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Damascus and met al-Assad.
Oglu says the visit by the Iranian diplomat was a message of “rejection” of the Damascus-Ankara talks.
Oglu adds that the postponement of the meeting by Turkey is because Iran no longer wants a Turkish presence in Syria.
Following the meeting with Amir-Abdollahian, al-Assad said Damascus would not enter into talks with Ankara unless the latter ends its occupation of Syrian territory and its support for terrorist groups in the country.
Regarding gains that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could make in domestic elections by normalizing ties with al-Assad, Oglu says that, if any, it “will be weak ones.”
Oglu believes that the economic crisis is the most aggravating issue that pushes military operations and shapes political endeavors. The Turkish journalist believes talks between Damascus and Ankara could continue up to the elections.
It is unknown whether Washington can or if it will take harsh measures, such as sanctions, against Turkey should these talks proceed.