QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – As Syria and Turkey, with Russian mediation, plan their first high-level diplomatic meetings since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Iran is likely to feel sidelined. Yet its hold over Syria – and the Syrian government – is too strong to feel seriously threatened.
After Turkish, Syrian, and Russian defense ministers and intelligence officials held a tripartite meeting in Moscow in late 2022, the three countries’ foreign ministers are set to meet in February, according to Turkish officials.
The rapprochement by the traditionally antagonistic governments in Ankara and Damascus, and the departure from the Astana Peace Talks for a political solution in Syria, are giving leaders in Tehran pause for thought.
In a recent analysis piece posted to the website of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, a government think-tank, the authors condemned the “parallel work” being carried out by direct bilateral talks as “unjustifiable,” accusing the governments in Ankara and Abu Dhabi of pursuing “extra-Syrian objectives”.
The only long-lasting diplomatic mechanism to solve the Syrian war, the Council argues, is through the ‘Astana’ mechanism, which has been organizing periodic meetings between the leadership of Turkey, Russia, and Iran since 2016.
Iran is the “most important” ally of Damascus, the piece continues. It played a “fundamental” role the latter’s survival. A five-point policy for Syria outlined towards the end furthermore involves Tehran in a diplomatic solution for the Syrian war, as well as the military defense and reconstruction of the country.
Yet Iran does not jealously guard its relationship with Damascus either. The same article “welcomes” the “correct” policy of Turkey and the United Arab Emirates in seeking to normalize relations with Syria.
Iran is far from losing out in Syria. Over the past few years, Iran and militias tied to it have taken control over swathes of the Syrian desert, expanded their influence north and east of Aleppo, and effectively run western Deir ez-Zor Governorate as a fiefdom. Russia’s weakness as it pulls troops to reinforce its invasion of Ukraine has only buttressed Tehran’s position.
“Iran is one of the most important factors and major supporters of the Syrian government and therefore it is not easy to seriously compromise Iran’s influence in Syria,” an analysis in the Al-Arab newspaper reads. “Tehran is showing great flexibility in this context, because it knows that its influence in Syria is important and not at risk.”
However, Iran also views recent moves by Ankara with “suspicion”. While no risk to its current position in Syria, Turkey has been able to play an important role during the Ukraine war – that of mediator – which is all but barred to Tehran, a global pariah state.
Turkey could be vying to play a similar role in the Syrian crisis, an Al-Monitor analysis suggests, softening the US up in regards to Syria in return for helping curb Tehran’s influence over the country. Yet how Ankara would dislodge Iran’s hold, and whether the coming tripartite meeting will result in anything substantial, remains to be seen.
Not to be outdone, Iran’s Foreign Minister will also travel to Ankara to meet his counterpart next week. Along Azerbaijan’s aggression against neighboring Armenia, the two minister are likely to discuss Syria.
While Iran may be sidelined in the coming talks, other countries’ rapprochement with Damascus can only help Iran in the long run. Its hold over Syria is too strong to be broken by mere diplomacy. As relations with Assad are normalized, so too will Iran’s foothold in Syria.