Turkey could mount ‘dramatic shift’ in Syria – US politician
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – A recent opinion piece in ‘War On The Rocks’, a US foreign policy blog, warns of shifting dynamics in Syria. Mona Yacoubian, the article’s author and a senior advisor to the federal ‘US Institute for Peace’, says Turkish actions in Syria could be a “threat to vital US national interests” in the region.
Turkey’s role in Syria, Yacoubian argues, is growing at the expense of Russia’s – a byproduct of the latter’s invasion of Ukraine. “While the tactical shift in Russia’s military footprint in Syria – never large – is relatively small, the reordering of power dynamics on the ground is far more significant.”
According to the author, the increase in Turkish drone attacks against targets in North and East Syria (NES) – which jumped to 120 in 2022, according to the SDF – is a direct result of Putin’s forced concessions to Erdogan. “Russia’s desire to assuage Turkey’s concerns in Syria may have been one factor in its Jan. 9 decision not to veto the renewal of the UN humanitarian border crossing at Bab al-Hawa,” she adds.
Yacoubian thinks Ankara may use its growing influence over Russia to push for a Kurdish withdrawal in Syria or a limited invasion. Additionally, Washington should be “planning for the possibility of Turkey, Russia, and the [Syrian] regime working together to push US forces out of northeast Syria.”
“These moves could foretell a dramatic shift in the Syrian conflict landscape that ultimately threatens the viability of the US-Kurdish partnership and its counter-Islamic State mission.”
The US politician warns that her government seems “unprepared” to face these challenges, as well as an increased Iranian presence and a growing Israeli involvement in the Syrian civil war.
To preempt these threats, Yacoubian writes, the new envoy to Syria should prioritize de-escalating and finding a diplomatic solution to the Turkish-Kurdish conflict.