Moscow breaks Damascus-Ankara ice, what is next?

QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – At last, the months-long efforts exerted by Russia to hold a meeting between Damascus and Ankara bore fruits where defense ministers and intelligence chiefs of both countries met in the Russian capital with prospects of a higher-level meeting rising. 

On Wednesday, Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced that Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar and the head of its National Intelligence Organization (MIT), Hakan Fidan, met with Syrian Minister of Defense Ali Mahmoud Abbas and Syrian intelligence chief Ali Mamlouk in Moscow along with Russia’s Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu.

“Syrian crisis, the refugee issue, and efforts of joint fight against all terror organizations on Syrian soil were discussed in the constructive meeting,” the ministry statement said.

In the same relation, commenting on the Moscow meeting, a Turkish official told Reuters on the condition of anonymity “It was discussed how the Turkish side can act jointly against terrorist organizations such as YPG and Daesh to ensure the territorial integrity of Syria and the fight against terrorism.” 

As the presidential elections in Turkey approach, Turkey’s bids for a rapprochement with Damascus come to the fore, where the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) faces tremendous challenges at home that cost it power. Syrian refugees are a heavy burden that could be made use of by the opposition at home. 

Militarily, Turkey has announced it intends to carry out a ground invasion into northeast Syria under the pretext of securing its borders and to re-settle Syrian refugees living on Turkish soil for years. 

However, up to now, it seems that Ankara has failed to get a green light for its operation as among others Russia stands up to the operation. Mevlut Cavusoglu, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey lashed out at Russia as it does not deliver on its words. 

However, Moscow seems to have made use of the Syrian refugees to block the road in front of the Turkish opposition to use it in the coming elections in the country and the need by the Syrian government to re-control northeast Syria. This could benefit all parties concerned. 

Al-Watan, a semi-official newspaper, cited sources saying the defense ministers’ meeting would not have happened “if matters had not been moving in an acceptable way and according to what Damascus wanted” during previous meetings. 

Late in July, Cavusoglu voiced his country’s readiness to render any kind of help that could enable the Syrian government to destroy “terrorists”. However, that met a wide-scale rejection by people living in areas under Turkish control. 

In August, following a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed there was cooperation between his country and Damascus in the security arena to “fight terror.” 

Erdogan told reporters that Putin understands Ankara’s concerns about its borders. Erdogan said at the time that Russia wants Turkey to contact directly with Damascus. 

Russia has finally succeeded to make Turkey consider a rapprochement with Damascus as it firmly stands up to any Turkish operation into northeast Syria. 

From his part, Cavusoglu embraced the idea as he laid stress on a rapprochement between the Syrian government and the opposition.  

Over time, the tone of Turkish officials began to change towards the Syrian government. They repeatedly voiced their acceptance that Syrian government forces be deployed to their southern border in Syria to replace the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).  

Erdogan has always said that his country intends to create a security belt and cooperate with its neighbors. 

According to observers, Turkey’s aims in the region could be recapped into two main goals. The first is to return Syrian refugees to their country and the second though is an undeclared one which is to abort the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) and to create a demographic change by settling refugees in those areas without making concessions on other areas under its control in northwest Syria. 

This was echoed in the words of Badran Chiya Kurd, co-chair of the Foreign Relations Department of the AANES, who told North Press that the meeting is a major blow to international efforts to combat terrorism and a fatal blow to any political initiative towards a solution and stability. 

These meetings will develop into a new phase of deals and bargains against the interests of Syrians, and seeks to “revive Adana Agreement [of 1998], which was unjust and unfair to the peoples of the region,” Chiya Kurd added.

The Syrian response to such a rapprochement came on September 24 when Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates Faisal Mekdad denied the existence of any negotiations with Turkey.  

At the time, Mekdad added that there were no negotiations, there were no contacts, and there was nothing at least on the level of foreign ministers.  

Uninterestedness by the Syrian government to thaw the ice with the Turkish government made Ankara again threaten to carry out a new military operation into northern Syria. 

Making use of the explosion hit the busy Istanbul Taksim square, Turkish forces initiated an unprecedented aerial bombardment and artillery shelling against northeast Syria extending from north of Aleppo in the west up to Derik (al-Malikiyah) on the Tigris River in the east.  

Amid such tension, Erdogan said he was ready to meet Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev commented on Erdogan readiness to meet al-Assad that his country nurtures the idea of a meeting between leaders of Syria and Turkey. The Russian official said Russia was on the side of Syria regarding the latter’s conditions in the de-escalation zone in northwest Syria according to the agreement signed in 2020. However, the whole idea was buried alive as the Syrian President broke the silence and said meeting Erdogan was not on his agenda.

In mid-December Erdogan said that he suggested to Putin a trilateral meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and trilateral steps on security issues.

“As of now, we want to take a step as Syria-Turkey-Russia trio,” Erdogan told reporters during his flight back from Turkmenistan when asked about Turkey’s security concerns in northern Syria.

“For the discussions on this issue, first the intelligence organizations, then the defense ministers, and then foreign ministers of the parties should meet,” the state-run Turkish media quoted Erdogan as saying.

Reporting by Rizan Hesen