What are the latest developments in northern Syria?

Jul 28, 2022

Politically, Turkish announcement to launch a military operation in northern Syria created tension among all parties and shuffled all cards. Before the announcement of the operation, there were American-Turkish meetings behind the scenes.

During those meetings, the US advised Turkey, since the Turkish goal of the operation is to settle one million Syrian refugees in Syria, to move its military operation to Saraqib, Khan Shaykhun and Maarat al-Numan, where there is no need for reconstruction as they are completed and ready cities.

In addition, there will be no accusation against Turkey of making demographic change, since the returnees belong to those cities.

Russia’s position

Russia cannot prejudice its relationship with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). It can pressure the SDF, but within limits because it wants to attract the SDF and keep it away from the US. Russia tries to intimidate the Turkish danger, but some SDF leaders mentioned that they understood the Russian plan, as it intends to push the SDF “to resort to Syrian regime, but not for fear for us.”

Therefore, Russia cannot give Turkey the green light for a military operation. The discussions took place with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were related to a deal that Russia can accept in exchange for the Turkish operation, which was taking the areas of Zawiya Mountain and Jabal al-Arbaeen and access to M4 Highway in exchange for a green light for a Turkish operation on the village of Menagh and the town of Tel Rifaat only. However, the Turks rejected the proposal.

The Russian Foreign Minister said, “Russia understands the concerns of Turkish National Security.” At the time, I said that they are diplomatic statements which do not mean Russian approval, but there are those who explained those statements as they wanted.

However, head of Astana Peace Talks, Alexander Lavrentiev, said in a statement he made on June 18, “The possible Turkish military operation in northern Syria is unwise and will create new security threats to Turkey, as it may push the Kurds to establish an independent state, and this will have consequences on the entire region.”

Later, Lavrentiev said that Moscow will not exploit Turkish influence in deals with Turkey in Syria.”

Some explained those statements as a change in the Russian position, but what Lavrentiev said was a continuation of what Lavrov had said ten days before in Ankara when he met with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu.

Iran

Iran disapproves the Turkish military operation for two reasons: first, it will make the Turkish affiliated Syrian National Army (SNA) in a direct contact with Nubl and al-Zahra towns in case it was able to take over Menagh, Tel Rifaat, and the surrounding villages.

Secondly, Iran wants for those areas to get back to “al-Assad regime” not to be annexed to the Turkish areas of influence, which may increase Turkish share to get bigger, since the upcoming conflict over Syria is expected to be between Iran and Turkey.

It is right that both states (Iran and Turkey) are Astana guarantors, but this does not mean that they are allies, as all what is happening right now even with the Russians can be named as “interests’ meetings” and co-operation, and thus the states involved in Astana talks can never be allies.

Iranian Foreign Minister’s visit to Ankara had two goals: first, to reduce the negative effects of the intelligence operation launched by Mossad and MIT which resulted in the arrest of two cells and eight members working for the Iranian intelligence whose mission was to assassinate Israelis in Turkey, including a former consul who lives in Turkey. Secondly, try to convince Turkey to stop launching its military operation.

The Iranian Foreign Minister came out and said, “We understand the concerns of the Turkish National Security” the thing that some understood as an “Iranian approval” which was another mistake committed by the others.

The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs failed to gain regional or international approval for its military operation. Also, the US categorical rejection pushed the Turks to raise the level of engagement and bring the issue to Tehran’s tripartite summit.

At the Tehran summit, the demands were completely different between the three presidents. Their body language was clear on the faces of the three presidents, where signs of anxiety and discomfort were clearly shown.

Vladimir Putin wanted from the summit “to stop the Turkish operation and meet Jordan and Israel’s concerns in downsizing the Iranian penetration into southern Syria. However, Putin failed.

Ebrahim Raisi wanted Tehran summit to be a reaction on Jeddah summit. He also wanted Turkey to stop its operation, as well as the Russian and Turkish support for Iran’s nuclear talks. However, Raisi failed.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan wanted the summit to give him the green light regarding the military operation as a primer goal and secure relief for Syrians as a secondary goal. However, he failed.

The tripartite summit failed by all means. The final statement was issued holding 950 American soldiers the responsibility for the chaos in Syria and demanding them to leave.

Militarily, the Turkish president’s announcement of a military operation in northern Syria was accompanied by military escalation regarding mobilization, immunization, reinforcements and alliances.

Areas expected to be invaded are:

Menagh, Tel Rifaat and the vicinity villages (west of the Euphrates)
Manbij (west of the Euphrates)
Kobani and Ain Issa (east of the Euphrates)
Areas surrounding Peace Spring operation near Tel Tamr (east of the Euphrates)

Spatially, the Turkish goals regarding the operation shrunk from a long-border operation with 30 km depth, to an operation against Tel Rifaat, Menagh, and it may reach Manbij. This was shown through the successive statements of the Turkish officials.

Timely, the operation has been delayed 60 days so far.

Syrian National Army (SNA) announced raising the state of preparedness, but actually and since it was away from the Turkish operation and its expected target scenes, no real change was noticed on the front lines. Press statements by media offices of certain factions remained the only noticeable thing of the preparations.

Turkey

Turkey has sent large military reinforcements into Syria, adding to the already existed 12.000 Turkish soldiers and 4.000 military vehicles, as well as to the four artillery, missile, radar and jamming systems located inside Syria. It also has huge military forces on the Turkish side of the border, (An intelligence source said that the Turkish operation may develop and include the city of Aleppo, too. If true, it needs a lot of political and military analysis that we will talk about later).

The SDF started its negotiations with the US-led Global Coalition, Russia, Iran and the Assad regime. It established a joint operations room in the vicinity of the towns of Menagh and Tel Rifaat (with the regime and Iran). The regime asked the SDF to hand over everything and become part of it, but the SDF refused. However, it agreed to allow the regime’s militias to enter specific places as a kind of protection for its areas.

The Russians have bolstered their positions in the city of Qamishli with 500 paratroopers and a number of combat vehicles. They increased their presence in the town of Ain Issa, amid information about deploying air defense systems.

In addition to increasing military supplies for the SDF, the US sent its forces back to their positions in the two military bases of Kharab Eshk and Lafarge Cement Factory, east of the Euphrates, south of the city of Kobani.

Why negotiations between SDF and the regime have not yet borne fruit?

The delegation of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) withdrew from the negotiations on Monday evening for the following reasons:

The Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) negotiated with the regime to truly resolve the Kurdish cause, asking it to draft and ratify new clauses in the Syrian constitution that concretely address the Kurdish issue, and not just holding discussions about legalizing the Kurdish language and culture.
The SDF will remain an independent military force in its areas and will work to form a military command in the future that will be affiliated with the new Syrian army, not the current one.
The Internal Security Forces of North and East Syria (Asayish) will remain independent and affiliated with the AANES and not with the regime.
The areas of Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa and Tabqa will be ran by their autonomous administrations, which will be consisted of the regions’ original inhabitants of Arabs, as it is now.

The AANES delegation withdrew from the negotiations after Damascus’ categorical rejection of its conditions and demands. The regime insisted that the SDF, with its fighters and weapons, to be part of the regime’s army, the matter that the SDF considered as returning to the pre-2011 era, which is rejected by the SDF.

SDF negotiations with the US and coalition

The US informed the SDF that the Turkish operation came to a halt or postponed, and even if it happened, it would not target the AANES-held areas east of the Euphrates. However, it renewed its demands to the SDF to stop provoking the Turkish army or its affiliated Syrian National Army (SNA).
The US asked the SDF not to accept the Russian proposals or the regime’s conditions in the ongoing negotiations.

The SDF asked the US to stop the Turkish attacks using Bayraktar TB2 drones, especially after it bombed the car of one the SDF’s leaders.

Recent escalation, drone attacks and Russia airstrikes

Failure of Tehran summit has been turned to escalation affected everybody in Syria’s north.

Russia wanted to deliver a message to Turkey through targeting a Turkistan camp, but its missiles missed the target and hit the village of al-Jadida. As a result, seven were killed and 12 were wounded.

Then, Russia’s White Swan took off from Khmeimim Air Base. The jet moves before the start of military operations or during preparations for military actions to gather information. It was a Russian message to Turkey, but firing it was a stronger message to commanders of the Khmeimim Air Base.

Turkey wanted to deliver a message to the SDF through targeting a vehicle picking three SDF female commanders on M4 Highway between the town of al-Qahtaniya (Tirbe Spiyeh) and the city of Qamishli in the countryside of Hasakah Governorate.

The SNA and al-Fateh al-Mubin Operations’ Room, under Turkish instructions, shelled Jurin, Saraqib, camps and positions of the regime militias, some of them reached sites in Salma and Slinfah.

Iran moved its tools in Iraq and organized protests and drones’ attacks that hit Turkish bases. Obviously, it was an Iranian operation aiming at distracting Turkey in order for Iran to use its tools in Iraq to put Turkey under pressure.

The US may be behind the recent Greek provocations to extend its territorial waters from 6 to 12 nautical miles in the Aegean sea, a step considered a provocation and also distraction for the Turks.

The SDF responded on Monday evening, following many shelling operations fired from Turkish posts and the SNA positions, by attacking Marea, allowing its forces to advance in Tel Malid, where the SNA has not built up, thus the Turks retaliated fiercely by shelling contact lines.

Additionally, the SDF conducted another advance operation in Anab in the northern countryside of Aleppo, resulting in fierce clashes, where the Turkish artillery intervened to stop the SDF advance.

Result

All these events indicate that each party has a card to pressure each other, without any indications, so far, about the start of a military operation; rather they are parades to present their powerful cards and open influential issues of the parties over each other.