QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – The Islamic State (ISIS) has shown considerable resilience in central and northeastern Syria, said the International Crisis Group, an organization working to prevent wars.
In a study publish on July 18, the organization said that although ISIS was defeated militarily, it has maintained and expanded in four parts of Syria, each held by different forces; the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) supported by the US-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in northeast Syria, Turkish forces and their affiliated armed opposition factions, also known as Syrian National Army (SNA) in the northern and eastern countryside of Aleppo, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly al-Nusra Front) in Idlib Governorate, and Syrian government forces supported by Russia and Iran in central Syria.
The abovementioned forces, the Crisis Group says, are “at odds” with each other, the matter negatively affects counter-ISIS efforts. “ISIS is exploiting this disorder [hostility among the forces] to bolster its fighting capacity.”
“They should ensure that their strategies account for developments in regions outside their control. They should also crack down on the smuggling routes that ISIS uses to transport fighters and supplies from one theatre to another,” the Group added.
It pointed out that “The group [ISIS] now seems to operate on two levels: a core of militants acting on the leadership’s directives conducts complex attacks, while a second, larger set of decentralized cells carries out smaller, more frequent raids, intimidates the public and handles the money.”
“ISIS is readying itself to pursue the goal of regaining overt territorial control if and when circumstances allow.”
According to the Group, ISIS trains most of its new recruits in Syria’s Badia, it gathers funds and stores supplies in the northeast, and it maintains hideouts for commanders in the north and northwest.
Recently, ISIS has started to use its sleeper cells to carry out more operations, including the SDF-run al-Sina’a attack in the city of Hasakah in January 2022, a prison holds ISIS members and adolescent boys from Syria and Iraq, as well as other countries.
The International Crisis Group noted to the fact that throughout 2020 and 2021, ISIS sleeper cells have built an intelligence network in northeast Syria, and raised money through theft, extortion and smuggling.
It indicated that those fighting ISIS [local and external forces] can still prevent it from resurging through forgoing conflict among themselves that could give ISIS a new lease on life. “But they can do more than that.”
In the northeast, the Coalition should expand political and economic support, and increase material aid for and training of security forces.
Also, the organization stressed that the Syrian government and Russia should likewise secure the lines of control in the Badia. “The Badia’s oil and gas fields would be vulnerable to attack if ISIS were to return in significant numbers.”