Tehran’s summit may not allow Turkey to invade Syria – politician
ERBIL, Iraq, KRI (North Press) – A politician specialized in Turkish affairs ruled out the possibility of granting Turkey an approval to launch a military operation against Syria’s north during a trilateral summit that will bring Russia, Iran and Turkey together on Tuesday.
The trilateral summit will be held in Tehran within the framework of Astana peace talks, which will be held on July 20 and 21.
The Syrian crisis tops the agenda that will be discussed during the summit, amid expectations that Turkey will try to obtain a green light to launch its potential military operation in northern Syria.
The meeting of the three countries’ leaders [Russia, Iran and Turkey], the guarantor countries of the Syrian issue, comes after a series of threats made by Turkish officials over the past period to launch a military operation in northern Syria.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently announced plans to carry out another major military cross-border incursion into northern Syria. Erdogan specified his targets in the two northern Syrian cities of Manbij and Tel Rifaat.
On July 1, Erdogan said that Ankara’s new military operation in northern Syria could begin at any moment.
“I always say that we can start [the incursion] at any moment at night. We should not worry and rush, especially since we are working in the area,” Erdogan told reporters after returning from the NATO summit in Madrid.
However, the Turkish efforts may face a Russian-Iranian rejection in light of the current international circumstances, according to the analysis of the politician, Mohamed Rabie al-Daihi.
“The idea of the tripartite meeting between the three countries greatly affects the Syrian crisis, whether during the Astana or other meetings, as they managed to some extent to arrange their interests amidst the contradictions,” al-Daihi told North Press.
“Launching the Turkish operation has become very difficult for many reasons, most notably the Russian-Ukrainian war, which was not in favor of Turkey even though the latter tried to exploit the crisis to achieve dual interests with Western countries on the one hand and with Russia on the other,” al-Daihi added.
The politician believes that Syrian government seems to have filled a void left by Russia, due to its war in Ukraine, by taking more aggressive stances against the Turkish military operation.
On July 15, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander in Chief, Mazloum Abdi, said “We accepted that the Syrian Army fortifies its posts in Kobani, Manbij and border areas in order to carry out its task to protect Syrian border, and we will do what is needed to avoid war against our areas.”
“We are eagerly awaiting the tripartite meeting that will bring together Turkey, Russia, and Iran on July 19, and we believe that other parties will not allow Turkish forces to launch their attacks against our areas,” he said.
International factors
Al-Daihi noted that launching any military operation deems to be too risky, as the current US administration is not the same as it was years ago, since it [Biden’s administration] adheres to the Middle East unlike the Trump’s administration, which reduced its presence in the region.
“Not to mention that the UN condemned the previous Turkish military operations, saying that they amounted to war crimes,” he added.
Al-Daihi further explained that Biden will not accept the repetition of such an operation, because at this time he stresses the importance of coherence in NATO that may be affected by contradicting positions regarding the operation, as France did, which is the first country to condemn the previous Turkish operations.
The researcher stressed that the summit in Tehran will not grant Turkey any approval to launch the military operation in the comprehensive sense, such as the previous ones that occurred in 2016, 2018 and 2019.
“Rather, there may be some efforts and coordination to calm the crisis through conducting joint patrols with Russia in some areas in northeastern Syria,” he further added.
Turkish forces with support of the Syrian National Army (SNA) have launched four major military operations in northern Syria since the Syrian war started in 2011, taking control of areas along the border in what it says is a bid to “protect its national security” and its frontier.
Other important issues
The summit will address several important issues including cooperation in the field of energy, which is a fundamental point for the three countries, especially since this comes in tandem with Jeddah Summit, which also discussed the stability of energy in the Middle East, the researcher said.
A high-level delegation of political and economic officials headed by Erdogan is visiting on Monday Tehran, a day before the summit, to hold bilateral talks with Iranian officials.
Official Iranian media announced that Erdogan will hold private talks with his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi, participate in the Turkey-Iran High-Level Cooperation Council, and then hold a joint press conference.
This will be followed by the arrival of Russian President Vladimir Putin, on Tuesday; to attend the trilateral meeting with Raisi and Erdogan, as well as Putin will hold a separate meeting with his Turkish counterpart.
Al-Daihi said that the Russia and Iran do not have an interest in Turkey’s annexation of more Syrian lands.