DAMASCUS, Syria (North Press) — Politicians believe that Turkish threats to invade areas northern Syria are no more than colonial ambitions, while others see them as a show off ahead of Turkish presidential election amidst international silence, ignoring woes of the Syrian war.
Moscow-based politician Mahmoud al-Afandi says the political track in Syria is limited to two tracks, the first is Astana and the second is the constitutional process supervised by guarantor states Russia, Turkey and Iran.
The first track, according to al-Afandi, is purely military as it includes de-escalation and ceasefire agreements, “but it also hides an aspect of the guarantors’ political agendas. Nevertheless, it is not supposed to pave the way for the political process.”
The second track, however, is political and relies on the Syrian Constitutional Committee (SCC) to draft a new constitution for Syria.
The SCC was established at the Sochi conference in January 2018 as a result of UN Resolution No.2254 which aims at finding a political solution in Syria. It consists of three representative blocs, including the opposition Syrian Negotiations Committee (SNC), the Middle Third bloc (civil society), and the Syrian government.
Unrelated to the political process
According to al-Afendi, the potential Turkish military operation in Syria has nothing to do with the political process, because the US was not present in either Astana or Sochi.
“Any military operation by Turkey will not tip the scales in the political process,” the politician said.
On May 23, Erdogan announced taking steps to complete the so-called remained portions of the “safe zone” plan along Turkey’s southern border saying, “We will soon take new steps regarding the incomplete portions of the project we started on the 30 km deep safe zone we established along our southern border.”
The Turkish “safe zone” is an area of 30-35 km (19-22 miles) deep into Syrian territory that Turkey started establishing in 2019 to house Syrian refugees in an area along its border with Syria, as well as to keep it free from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which it regards as terrorists.
On May 25, Turkey’s National Security Council said that Turkey’s “existing and future military operations along its southern borders were necessary for the country’s security.” In the meeting, Erdogan delivered a speech to the MPs of his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and said, “Turkish military would continue to rid its neighbor of terrorists” refers to the SDF.
On June 1, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan renewed his threats of launching a military operation on northern Syria, and specified his targets in the two Syrian cities of Manbij and Tel Rifaat, which include many Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).
The reason for this is Turkey’s political agreements in Astana. “It cannot do this without referring to Russia and Iran. It is bond by the de-escalation agreements,” al-Afendi added.
Marah Buqa’i, editor-in-chief of the White House in Arabic platform (WHiA) in Washington D.C, fears that the potential Turkish incursion would “endanger the civilians living in camps and in populated cities.”
“Turkey is trying to achieve its interests in northern Syria under the pretext of protecting its national security,” Buqa’i added to North Press.
Neither the US nor Russia has given Turkey the green light to launch its operation in northern Syria.
Buqa’i believes that “any military operation on any given part of Syria will disrupt the political process.”