QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – The Syrian war is entering its 12th year. During the past 11 years, the country has witnessed political, military and economic transformations, and so far no signs of a political settlement sponsored by the United Nations.
All countries, actors and stakeholders, even those not directly concerned with the Syrian issue, raised the slogan, “The solution in Syria is political, not military.”
Observers to the Syrian issue believe that Syria has not witnessed great stability, due to the continuation of international and regional tensions over what the desired political solution is, and the deterioration of economic and living conditions.
Also, the map of the military parties in Syria did not change until the end of 2021, and the percentages of control remained almost completely fixed.
While successive living crises, which culminated in early 2021, topped the economic scene in the government-held areas, and are still worsening, the situation was not much different in the opposition-controlled areas in northwestern country or in the northeast.
Power and influence distribution
There has been no change in the areas of military influence of the conflicted forces in Syria, where the Syrian government controls 63% of the Syrian territory, which houses nearly 11 million people out of the 17 million who are still in Syria, with seven million people refuged outside it, according to press reports.
Today, its influence is concentrated in Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Latakia, Tartus, Daraa, and Deir ez-Zor, where the Russian military intervention in 2015 played a major role in reclaiming it from the opposition.
Iran and Russia are seeking, through their intervention in the Syrian war, to take advantage of its role and promote its own agenda, as Moscow has taken control of the situation and political and economic gains, according to observers.
Russia succeeded in securing major advantages, as the Syrian government allowed Moscow to use Syrian ports and facilities free of charge in 49-year deals.
While the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control the areas of northeastern Syria, which is equivalent to a quarter of Syria, and the population in this area is about 2.5 million people, not to mention the number of displaced people to that area and those coming from government or opposition-controlled areas.
The US supports the SDF forces in their war against the sleeper cells of the Islamic State organization (ISIS).
As for the opposition, it still controls the western and northern countryside of Idlib and more than half of the southern countryside is under the effective control of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), with the presence of opposition factions, but without actual control.
In addition, Ghab Plain, the last opposition-controlled area in Hama, and large parts of al-Akrad and Turkmen mountains in Latakia countryside, and the western countryside of Aleppo.
Economic reality
The repercussions of the war in Ukraine, announced by Russia since February 24, topped the economic scene in the Syrian market in general.
Government areas are reeling under the weight of successive living crises, led by the fuel crisis, in addition to severe shortage of vegetable oil, accompanied by a significant increase in its price, amid the government’s proposal for a mechanism that residents described as insufficient.
While the residents of the opposition areas in northwestern Syria, suffer from miserable living conditions in light of HTS domination of all life sectors and its policy of restricting the population, amid accusations of starvation and monopoly.
The areas of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) were not immune from the consequences of the Caesar Act.
In late February, North Press, learned from US sources, Washington plans to raise sanctions applied under Caesar’s Act on northeastern and northern Syria, except for HTS held areas.
Political updates
The 17 rounds of Astana, the first of which began in January 2017, and the last of which was at the end of 2021, did not achieve any significant progress in the political process in Syria.
In October 2021, the 6th round of the Constitutional Committee was held, after a delay of more than 9 months, but like previous rounds, it did not result in any progress, and it was agreed to hold a 7th round after a month, but even that did not happen.
The special UN envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, urges steps towards achieving consensus on the constitutional committee, but he recently said that the Russian-Ukrainian war will make it difficult for international diplomacy to work in Syria.
The AANES does its efforts to have relations with opposition figures and entities, enabling it to obtain political legitimacy to participate in negotiations and the constitutional committee that was formed nearly three years ago, according to observers.
In early 2021, Ilham Ahmad, president of the Executive Committee of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political wing of the SDF, said that the goal of the Autonomous Administration during the current year is to establish a joint project with the Syrian opposition and all parties to the solution.
Almost in the last quarter of last year, the Arab objection to the new containment of the Syrian government, or what is known as normalization, decreased, and witnessed a breakthrough at the diplomatic level.
A number of Arab and foreign countries announced the reopening of their embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus, the return of their diplomatic mission to work there, such as Bahrain, and the end of the estrangement between Amman and Damascus.
The Syrian opposition, after a decade of war, has failed to unite its ranks and present a serious alternative to the existing “regime” in Syria, and due to successive field losses, its voice has become faint and its leaders are dispersed and move according to what the agendas of its backed countries.
The opposition entities witnessed internal conflicts, as the minutes of a meeting that took place between the Turkish Foreign Ministry and a delegation from the leadership of the Syrian opposition coalition, in December 2021, revealed the existence of a dispute between the coalition led by Salem al-Maslat and the defector Riyad Hijab, former Syrian Prime Minister.
In conclusion, a new year of the ongoing Syrian war is emerging, with stifling living and economic crises and differences among the forces controlling the ground, amid the absence of any solution looming on the horizon.