What is the impacts of Abu Dhabi-Ankara rapprochement on Damascus?
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Restoring ties between Turkey and the UAE has raised questions about its impact on Ankara’s ties with Damascus and with the Muslim Brotherhood.
On November 24, Years after sharp political differences between Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan in the Turkish capital, Ankara.
This visit comes nearly two weeks after a visit ,considered the first of its kind in more than ten years, by the Emirati Foreign Minister, Abdullah bin Zayed, to Damascus, during which he met Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Turkey contradicts the UAE regarding the crisis in Syria. While Turkey supports armed opposition factions in northwestern and northeastern Syria, the UAE supports Russian military intervention in Syria and the Autonomous Administration in the northeast of the country.
In 2015, the UAE opposed a Saudi request, submitted by seven countries, namely Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Germany, Britain, France and the United States, demanding Russia to stop its military operations in Syria.
In 2020, the UAE presented an initiative on the political process in Syria, involving the Kurds in it.
The initiative required redrawing the map in Idlib, controlling the M4 and M5 Highways, and tried to deter Ankara in the country by reducing its influence.
It also included the opening of the Syrian-Jordanian Nassib border crossing, and the revitalization of the ports of Latakia and Tartus, in exchange for the UAE’s attempt to postpone the implementation of the American Caesar Act, or at least ease its restrictions for a trial period.
In August, the Nassib border crossing between Syria and Jordan fully opened, after the restoration of relations between the two countries.
The US amended the Syrian Sanctions Regulations (SySR) to expand the authorizations for non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to engage in certain transactions and activities, the US Department of Treasury said in a statement on November 25.
The Turning Point of the Turkey-Gulf relationship
The Arab Spring protests marked a change in the status of the Turkey-Gulf relationship, since then, Turkey and the UAE have taken different approaches toward regional conflicts and political alliances.
The dispute and estrangement between the UAE and Turkey became public with the intervention of the Egyptian army to ouster the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated President Mohamed Morsi in Egypt.
In the aftermath of Morsi’s ouster in 2013, pro-Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood media accused the UAE of supporting forces opposed to its rule.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain stood firmly by the Egyptian army and provided Egypt with billions of dollars in financial aid, and soon the three Gulf States listed the group as a terrorist organization.
For its part, Turkey sided with the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated President Mohamed Morsi, and stood against the Egyptian army’s move and strongly criticized what happened in Egypt, describing it as a coup against legitimacy and the legitimate president.
The boycott of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt also moved the UAE away from Turkey, as Ankara sided with Doha. Turkey’s decision to support Qatar during the Gulf crisis was unsurprising, since both countries have adopted a similar approach for the region.
Turkey and Qatar formed a front in opposition to what happened in Egypt. Tension escalated after the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey, and the accusations leveled by Ankara against Abu Dhabi of “trying to sow confusion and sowing discord in Turkey,” according to a statement by Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu in February 2020.
The UAE and Turkey’s rapprochement is seemingly part of a larger effort, as it is the result of gradual steps taken by Turkey during the past months to normalize relations, especially after the Gulf summit in Saudi Arabia.
Turkey has been working to improve ties with both Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
In September, the Egyptian and Turkish governments issued a joint statement at the conclusion of talks on normalizing relations that were overshadowed by tension in the past years.
The statement indicated that the delegations of the two sides discussed bilateral issues as well as a number of regional issues, such as the situation in Libya, Syria, Iraq, Palestine and the eastern Mediterranean.
In May 2021, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu visited Saudi Arabia and held a meeting with his Saudi counterpart, but Saudi Arabia’s continued boycott of Turkish products showed that it is difficult to fully normalize relations between the two countries in the short term.
The Turkish rapprochement with Saudi Arabia came after the 41st Gulf Summit, which was held in al-Ula, Saudi Arabia.
One of the outcomes of the summit was the return of full diplomatic relations between the four countries (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt) and Qatar.
The final statement of the Gulf summit stressed its firm positions and decisions regarding the Syrian crisis and a political solution based on the principles of Geneva 1 and UN Security Council Resolution 2254.
Mutual economic benefits policy
The shared interests and concerns are likely to drive the course of the relationship between the two countries, as both Ankara and Abu Dhabi are interested in boosting their economic relations.
These explain Erdogan’s invitation of the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi at a time when the Turkish lira is witnessing a historic crash against the dollar.
As for the oil-rich UAE, it is looking, according to press reports, for non-oil income with the decline in oil prices, so it seems today in dire need of a strong and stable foothold for investment in the world, and strong trading partners able to support its plans for economic growth.
Oil prices lost ten dollars, on November 26, recording the largest decline in one day since April 2020, after the discovery of a new strain of the coronavirus worried investors and reinforced fears of an inflationary global oversupply in the first quarter of next year.
Oil fell with global stock markets on fears that the new strain would undermine economic growth and fuel demand.
During Turkey’s participation in the Expo 2020 Dubai, the Turkish ambassador to Abu Dhabi, Tocay Tunshir, announced that the volume of trade between Turkey and the UAE amounted to 8.5 billion dollars.
He pointed out that the first six months of this year witnessed a growth in trade movement close to 100%.
While the UAE Minister of Economy, Abdullah bin Touq al-Marri, said that the economic partnership between the UAE and Turkey is witnessing continuous development.
He pointed out that commercial exchange between the two countries jumped by 100% in the first half of this year.
Followers see that the economic ties between the two countries may be a major reason for managing disputes in regional issues, particularly Syria.
Especially in light of the different stances between Turkey and the UAE regarding reviving al-Assad as Abu Dhabi welcomes this, while Ankara is still hesitant.
Paving the way for Syria’s re-admit to Arab League
Recently, there have been many talks about intentions and efforts of Arab countries to re-admit Syria to the Arab League.
In an emergency meeting in Cairo in late November 2011, Arab foreign ministers suspended Syria’s membership in the Arab League following the eruption of the war in the country.
Meanwhile, the current phase in Syria on the security, economic and political levels has gone beyond the circumstances that emerged in 2011, which prompted many countries, topped by the UAE, Algeria, Jordan and Iraq, to call for the return of Syria to its vacant seat for a decade.
Algeria was at the top of those who had reservations about the decision to freeze Syria’s membership and after Abdel Majid Tebboune assumed the presidency, he defended Syria’s return to the League of Arab States.
The UAE Foreign Minister, Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, called for Syria’s return to its Arab surroundings.
In a press conference with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in Abu Dhabi in March, bin Zayed said regional cooperation is necessary to start the path of Syria’s return to its surroundings.
Analysts considered these steps a strong indication of Syria’s return to the Arab League and a necessary step to block the path of foreign interference that harmed the Syrian issue.
From this point of view, Turkey fears the loss of all its goals and ambitions in Syria and interests’ inconsistency, so that it headed towards Emirates, which opened up regarding its foreign policies towards pacifying problems and calming regional conflicts.
In the corridors of the Turkish policy, a talk about preparations regarding strategic and fateful deal between Turkey and Syria under Russian administration is being circulated.
On September 4, the Turkish newspaper Gazatasi (close to the ruling Justice and Development Party) reported about an anticipated meeting in Baghdad bringing together Head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization Hakan Fidan and head of the National Security Bureau of the Ba’ath Party Major General Ali Mamlouk.
The meeting that will be hold in Baghdad was described by the former Turkish Armed Forces Intelligence Department head İsmail Hakkı Pekin as a start to a new phase.
For the first time since 2011, Mamlouk and Fidan met in the Russian capital Moscow in January 2020 and they discussed several issues the most prominent of which was the Turkish presence in Syria, while the Turkish party did not comment on this meeting.
Days ago, a Syrian delegation that represented the Syrian Ministry of Interior visited Turkey as part of its participation in the regular meetings of the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) in Istanbul.
This visit was paid after talks regarding an upcoming normalization of bilateral ties between Turkey and Syria were circulated “with Ankara’s acknowledgment through its senior officials that intelligence communication with Damascus is still continuing,” according to former statements.