Will Russia be capable to oust Iran from Syria?
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Russia has been recently seeking to remove Iran from Syria or at least to weaken its influence by increasing presence in Syrian areas where Iranian-backed militias exist.
A good example of that is Russia’s success to remove the Fourth Brigade affiliated with the Syrian government forces from Syria’s southern city of Daraa according to a settlement agreement.
Israeli airstrikes over Syria that directly target Iranian sites has played a role to assist Russia accomplish its goal.
Secretly, Russia is convenient by the Israeli air attacks but refuses them on public by bearing Israel the responsibility of these airstrikes and alleging they are ‘unconstructive’.
In October, Israeli’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennet and Russia’s president Vladimir Putin met for the first time in Sochi and agreed to maintain the policy that gives Israel the right to freely operate in Syria.
Ze’ev Elkin, Israeli’s Housing and Construction Minister said “Russia agreed not to hamper Israeli air campaign over Syria”.
Israeli military sources reported that Russia asked for preliminary warnings in case Israel launched attacks over Syrian territories.
Israel rarely acknowledges or confirms any strikes it carries out on Syria but repeats it will continue to confront Iran’s attempts to build permanent military entrenchment inside Syria.
Last week, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced an ‘interest understanding’ memorandum between Tel Aviv, Damascus and Moscow in order to diminish Iran’s influence in Syria.
“The coordination with Russia in the Syrian context has a key role in improving Israel national security,” Aviv Kochavi, Israel Chief of the General Staff said.
“Necessity to back Assad”
The fresh Russian-Israeli coordination has intensified the strikes launched by IDF against Iranian interests in Syria as eight airstrikes were reported only last month.
One party within Israel’s Chief Staff calls to the need to support Bashar al-Assad regime in order to survive and re-sway control over all Syria with the purpose to eliminate Iran and reduce its influence in Israeli’s north border.
In its annual assessment on Israel security conditions for 2022, the IDF said “Israeli north region’s instability on Syria-Lebanon border was reduced dramatically over 2021 after years of tension because Russian-Israeli ties tightened.”
Iran’s military actions in Syria seems to meet disapproval by Assad as they undermine Assad’s governance in his country, according to Ron Ben-Yishai, a military and security Israeli expert.
In 2012, Iran and its proxy Lebanese Hezbollah started to intervene in the Syrian conflict for the side of Assad by offering military consultation, fighters, ammunition and providing economic assistance.
Assad owes too much to Iran because of the assistance he received during hard times but lately he seems to be discontent with Iran’s’ heavy presence in his own country.
Recent developments prove disputes
News outlets reported that tension has erupted between the Syrian government and Jawad Ghafari, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force in Syria, as a result to the latter’s recent actions, which led to be expelled.
Almost two weeks ago, a diplomatic source reported that Bashar al-Assad sent a message to Iran’s leadership asking to expel Ghafari in order to maintain the strong ties between both countries.
Ghafari was accused of carrying out a conspiracy against Syria’s sovereignty and ‘overactivity’.
In turn, Iran’s Foreign Ministry released a statement denying any disagreements between Assad’s government and Iran’s military representative in Syria.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh, stated “the fabricated news by Zionist media outlets and some other countries’ are not new and they have different perspective and framework on various levels.”
According to war monitors, the removal of Iranian-backed fourth Brigade led by Maher al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad’s brother, from Syria’s south city of Daraa indicates that Syria-Iran tension is not fabricated.
The Fourth Brigade withdrawal from Daraa was according to a Russian-brokered settlement agreement in early September that stipulated a complete ceasefire following a 78-day siege imposed by Iran and government forces.
Ibrahim al-Jabawi, a member of the Syrian Negotiation Committee and a former dissident, told North Press that Russia implemented the settlement in accordance with an international agreement, which one of its items was to remove the Fourth Brigade from Daraa given it is loyal to Iran.
Considering Daraa’s geographical location, on Israel’ northern borders, Russia is implementing an item in the ‘interest understanding’ memorandum it has signed with Israel.
“Russia insists to implement the whole items of the understanding memorandum” al-Jabawi added.
Change in attitude
Russia infiltrated more into Daraa and broadens its influence on economic, military and educational fields.
Russia opened a center to teach Russian and promised the residents to provide medical supplies as well as other stuff.
News outlets reported that some fighters of the Iranian-backed militias have quit the militias in the east countryside of Aleppo and joined the Russian-sponsored Fifth Brigade.
The fighters quit Iranian-backed factions fearful being directly targeted by the IDF. Plus, Russia is luring them by offering large sums of money, reports say.
Iranian factions transferred its positions to areas near Russian military bases to avoid Israeli airstrikes, eyewitnesses in al-Bukamal told North Press.
Iranian factions evacuated T-4 military airport in the eastern countryside of Homs and moved to Shayrat Airbase south of Homs, to be replaced by Syrian government forces and Russian Military Police.
The recent transformation by Iran is according to Russian-Iranian understandings to evade IDF’s air attacks.
Observers say Russian efforts to reduce Iran’s influence in Syria aim to reach stability in Syria and the flow of cash provided by the Gulf states, the EU states and maybe China for the reconstruction of Syria. The cash will not come unless Russia offers real guarantees to diminish Iran’s influence in Syria.