Will Ankara attack northeast Syria again?
IDLIB, Syria (North Press) – There have been contradicting peculations and analyses about the possibility of Turkey launching a new military operation in Syria. If it happened, it might bring in to the region the scenario of “total chaos and human catastrophe” that the region witnessed during the previous Turkish operations in Afrin and the border strip between Sere Kaniye (Ras al-Ain) and Tel Abyad, in the northeast Syria.
Military analysts and leaders of the Syrian armed opposition factions in Idlib rule out any military operation that Turkey might launch, whether in northwest or northeast Syria, given that Turkey has not obtained US or Russian approval so far.
Earlier today, and in an exclusive statement to North Press, Youssef Hamoud, the spokesperson for the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), denied the news about the intention of the SNA to start a military operation in the north and northeastern regions of Syria.
Recently, Turkish official media has reported threats to Turkish officials including the Turkish president, talking about an imminent military operation in the city of Tel Rifaat in the northern countryside of Aleppo and areas in northeast Syria.
However, according to leaders in the Turkish-backed Syrian armed opposition factions, the Russian-Turkish dispute over Syria seemed deep, especially after Putin-Erdogan meeting in the city of Sochi about a month ago. It seems that what is happening today is “pressure and sending messages from both sides.”
Ahmad Rahal, an opposition military expert, believes that Turkey “cannot start any battle without having a political umbrella. It is not in Turkey’s interest to engage in a war against the government forces and confronts Russia in Tel Rifaat and Mennegh Military Airport in the northern countryside of Aleppo, or the United States in eastern regions of Euphrates.”
“What we see today is the almost complete absence of this political umbrella, as Turkey has not yet obtained the approval of US or Europe or even Russia,” Rahal added.
Washington warns
The US warned the Turks yesterday, any precipitous actions would not benefit US-Turkish relations.
This came in a meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Rome.
In an exclusive statement to North Press, Joel Rayburn, the former US Special Envoy for Syria, expected that “there would be no large-scale Turkish attack on the Syrian Democratic Forces-held areas.”
“Washington is keen to avoid the region further security collapse, while working to preclude any armed military clashes between the Turkish and American armies on Syrian territory,” Rayburn told North Press.
“We agreed with Biden to intensify our cooperation in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, the eastern Mediterranean, as well as the economic field,” Erdogan said today.
Speaking of a military operation against northeast Syria, Erdogan said: “It will be carried out when it is a must, adding “it cannot be undone.”
No military operation will be launched, neither in Idlib nor in Tel Rifaat, or even in Manbij, Kobani, and other areas, given that today there is a strong American position that precludes any military operation, and the Russians reject it as well, according to Rahal.
Serious threats
However, Amjad Othman, the official spokesman for the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), told North Press that SDC is taking the Turkish threats against northeast Syria into consideration.
“Turkey insists on implementing its expansionist project relying on radical factions that are far away from the civilized world,” Othman added.
“All parties must respect the truce in Syria,” US State Department said today.
In a reply to a question by Rudaw Media Network, the US State Department spokesperson stressed, “It is important for all parties to respect the truce in Syria in order to maintain stability.”
In October 2019, Turkey signed two ceasefire agreements with the US and Russia following the military operation called “Peace Spring” through which it controlled the two cities of Sere Kaniye (Ras al-Ain) and Tel Abyad in northern Syria.
The official spokesman for the Army of Glory of the Syrian opposition factions, Mustafa Bakour, said everything that happens after Erdogan and Putin met in Sochi indicates that the differences between the Russians and the Turks over the Syrian issue are deep.
Bakour added, what is currently happening regarding the military escalation and mutual mobilization comes within the framework of sending messages and putting pressure on the other party, “but we must not forget that the tense relationship between the US and Turkey brings Turkey closer to Russia despite the disputes between them.”
“The talk about Russian military action cannot be separated from the results of Astana. Everyone knows that the last Astana finished with no agreement and what is happening on the front lines of mobilization and movement of forces from both sides is something normal as I see it,” Bakour noted.
Escalation in Idlib
Russian warplanes have recently escalated bombing Syrian opposition-controlled areas in northwest Syria, which mainly targets the border areas with Turkey north of Idlib.
This comes at a time when the Turkish forces are sending huge military reinforcements to their points in the areas of Idlib, Hama and Aleppo, amid reports saying that the two sides intend to launch military actions in the areas of northwest and northeast Syria.
Albeit the clash and the escalating Russian-Turkish rivalry concentrates in the areas of northwest and northeast Syria, the escalation between them is clearly shown in Idlib as it is considered a field for exchanged messages. Therefore, leaders of the opposition factions believe that military operations are imminent.
In tandem with the arrival of military reinforcements of the Syrian government forces on the contact areas, the armed factions are bringing in additional forces, amid the fears of residents and displaced people in Idlib and the northern countryside of Aleppo and northeast Syria that they may be “victims of agreements and deals running under the counter.”
“All the factions of the National Army, including the National Front for Liberation, have raised their combat readiness for about a week on the entire lines of contact with the SDF and the government forces west of Aleppo,” a military commander in the National Front for Liberation, who declined to be named, told North Press.
He pointed out that the factions are waiting for the Turkish orders to start the military operation, which is expected to start on the areas of Tel Rifaat and Mennegh Military Airport, with the direct participation of the Turkish army.
As some observers see, the expected operation of the government forces, aims to regain new areas of Idlib in exchange for some privileges for Turkey in other areas.