New Russian-Turkish exchange process looms in Syria
IDLIB, Syria (North Press) – Mustafa Bakour, the official spokesperson for Jaysh al-Izza (the Army of Glory, an armed faction affiliated with Syrian armed factions operating in Idlib), revealed the possibility of Turkish and Russian forces carrying out a “new exchange” process in the areas of northwestern and northeastern Syria.
This comes at a time when northwest Syria is witnessing intense bombardment by Syrian government forces and Russian warplanes that intensified their bombardment on October 1, killing and wounding several civilians.
The military escalation of the government and Russian forces in the de-escalation zones coincided with military build-ups of the government forces and Iranian-backed militias on several points west of the city of Aleppo.
sources of the opposition factions in Idlib, called Abu Steif 80, stressed to North Press the arrival of infantry groups affiliated with the Iranian Baqir Brigade, the Republican Guard, and the Russian-backed Fifth Brigade.
The areas that these forces have entered are adjacent to the areas held by the Syrian opposition, west of Aleppo and east of Idlib.
Following the summit that brought together the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi, on September 29, the Kremlin stressed that the two parties emphasized their commitment to the agreements concluded regarding the necessity of evacuating Idlib governorate, northwest Syria, of terrorists, and that the two presidents also pledged to continue to act in accordance with previous agreements on Syria.
In March 2020, Russia and Turkey reached an agreement in Moscow that stipulated a ceasefire, the establishment of a safe corridor, and the conduct of joint patrols on the M4/Aleppo-Latakia Highway.
The patrols run from the village of Tarnabah, east of Idlib, to Ain al-Hoor, north of Latakia, the last area held by the opposition factions.
Escalation and pressure
In an exclusive interview with North Press, Bakour said, “The region is used to the Russian military escalation and the perpetration of massacres against civilians before every meeting with the Turks or a new round of Astana.”
He pointed out that the goal of the Russian escalation is to pressure the Turks to make concessions in exchange for stopping the bombing.
He believed that, based on the results of the Russian-Turkish summit, “we can talk about Russian military action on Zawiya Mountain or Turkish military action in the Euphrates Shield area.”
However, according to Bakour, what they have followed up from statements between Russia and Turkey suggests a great divergence of views and a contradiction of interests.
He believed that there is no major military action in any area, and this does not negate the possibility of reaching Russian-Turkish agreements that lead to a small change in the map of the areas of control.
Regarding the Russian air strikes that targeted areas under Turkish control in the countryside of Afrin, north of Aleppo, Bakour stressed that they are strong Russian messages to Turkey.
No Red Lines
He said that the meaning of these messages is: “If you do not make concessions, there are no red lines on any region or faction, even if it raises the Turkish flag over its headquarters.”
Among these concessions that Russia wants from Turkey is the opening of the M4 Highway, and opening channels of communication with the Syrian government, in addition to the relationship with the Syrian Democratic Forces, according to Bakour.
He indicated that he does not rule out that the Turkish forces hand over Zawiya Mountain area, south of Idlib, for the government forces and Russia in exchange for Manbij.
Regarding the role of the military factions in this situation, if it occurs, the spokesperson for Jaysh al-Izza said, “There is no evidence that the Astana factions have been liberated from the obligations they had previously signed, and in general, they cannot do much without Turkish support, even if they announced their readiness to confront any aggression against northern Syria.”
Naji Mustafa, the official spokesperson for National Front for Liberation said that the factions affiliated with the National Front for Liberation have raised the military and combat readiness to confront any scenario that may occur in the region.
In an interview with North Press, Mustafa expressed his belief that all scenarios are possible in Idlib, and the military factions operating there are ready for any of them.
The official spokesperson for the National Front for Liberation ignored answering several other questions, including the role of the Turkish forces if the battle breaks out in Idlib.