IDLIB, Syria (North Press) – Youssef Qintar fears that he may be displaced again from his town of Kafr Lata in tbe Ariha region, south of the Aleppo-Latakia Highway in the southern countryside of Idlib, only five months after his return from the IDP camps.
The villages and towns located in Zawiya Mountain, Jabal al-Arbaeen, and Ariha city have been witnessing military escalation since June.
Since early 2020, the region witnessed relative calm following a Russian-Turkish meeting in Astana, which encouraged some residents to return to their homes.
Despite the de-escalation agreement signed by Turkey and Russia in March 2020 and the presence of the Turkish posts, residents fear of a new operation by the government forces with the return of escalation.
The residents are afraid that Turkish forces may hand over parts of those areas to the government forces in exchange for obtaining new areas east of the Euphrates or gains in trade or weapons deals as they did before.
“The absence of the Turkish position and its silence confirm that it agrees on what is happening,” Qintar added.
Turkey was a guarantor in the countryside of Hama and Aleppo previously, and it promised the residents of those areas that it would prevent any advance of the government forces. However, it handed them over in return for being permitted to invade areas east of the Euphrates in 2019.
The area south of the M4 Highway in the countryside of Idlib is home to about a quarter of a million civilians, including thousands of IDPs, who suffer from difficult living and economic conditions, according to director of the of the Syria Response Coordinators Team Mohammad Hallaj.
“The recent military escalation in Syria’s north indicates that there is an unannounced agreement between Turkey and Russia, and suggests the continuation of the escalation,” Northern Democratic Brigade spokesman Mahmud Habib said Wednesday.
Although Turkey and Russia are guarantors of ceasefire agreements, they are sharing in the escalation and shelling of civilians in several areas in the Syrian north, Habib told North Press.
The spokesman pointed out that there is Russian-Turkish complicity in which Syrian civilians have been victimized, and it was matched by “ambiguous international silence and unclear reasons, even by the Global Coalition present in northeastern Syria.”
Lack of trust in Turkish points
Qintar said that most of the residents do not trust in the Turkish points, “as Turkey’s silence and its 50 points south of Idlib assure that it participates in killing Syrians.”
“Dozens of the Turkish points scattered in the Zawiya Mountain failed to stop the bombardment of the government forces.”
Three Turkish military points are in Kansafra town alone, “and all of them failed to protect children sleeping in their homes.”
During the sixth round of the Astana talks in September 2017, Iran, Turkey, and Russia signed an agreement that determined the de-escalation zone which includes Idlib and parts of the countryside of Aleppo, Hama, and Latakia.
Moreover, Turkish military points were established to observe the ceasefire between the government forces and opposition factions.
In mid-August 2019, the government forces, supported by Russian air cover, managed to take complete control of the northern countryside of Hama and most of the western countryside of Hama.
By the end of 2019, the government forces had begun a military campaign on the southern and eastern countryside of Idlib and Aleppo, which continued until early February 2020.
The campaign ended with the complete control of government forces of the Shahshabo Mountain in addition to dozens of strategic cities such as Kafr Nubl, Ma’arat al-Nu’man, Saraqib and Khan Shayhun.
At the time, government forces seized more than 12 Turkish military posts in those areas.
Mere statements
Military and political analysts of the Syrian opposition ruled out the possibility of Turkish forces handing over the area to the government forces in exchange for approvals to target northeast Syria.
According to the sources, such a step “would cause Turkey to lose its credibility in the minds of the factions that work in coordination with it…is what Turkey does not want right now.”
Ma’n al-Ibrahim, a resident of Ariha, says that the indiscriminate bombing of the area heralds an imminent war in which residents will lose their homes and properties.
Al-Ibrahim added that the presence of the Turkish guarantor “is useless.”
The official spokesman of the Turkish backed Jaysh al-Izza opposition group Colonel Mustafa Bakour told North Press that he does not expect any military operation on the ground, but does expect a continuation of the intermittent bombing on northern Syria to create a state of instability.
He added that the Russians targeting the vicinity of the Turkish points, “is part of sending a message to the Syrians that the Turks are unable to protect you or themselves.”