IDLIB, Syria (North Press)- Analysts and political activists are ruling out the possibility that recent military escalation in Idlib, northwest Syria, will turn into a large-scale military operation in the region, as they say that it does not exceed Russian pressures on Ankara to make concessions.
Over the past few weeks, Idlib has witnessed military escalation and mutual bombardment between Syrian government forces and Turkish-backed armed opposition groups.
These regions are subjected to Russian -Turkish “de-escalation” agreement on, whose additional protocols were signed on March 5, 2020 and which stipulated the cessation of all military operations in northwest Syria.
Field sources confirmed to North Press that the opposition groups’ sites in the south of Idlib and others in the Ghab Plain, to the west of Hama, were intensively targeted by Syrian government forces, while the opposition groups bombed sites under the control of the Syrian government in the country sides of Idlib and Latakia.
Covering crises
Military analyst Brigadier General Ahmed Rahal said that “Russian forces are escalating militarily in northwest Syria under the pretext of fighting terrorism, but in my opinion they are putting pressure on Turkey after Russia demanded the transfer of the Turkish besieged points to the north of the M4 Highway.”
“Turkey’s re-positioning of its points to the south of the M4 and placing them in frontlines with Syrian government forces makes combat points, not observation ones,” according to Rahal.
“The Turks say that the Syrian forces’ control over the M4 is impossible, although it is a common aspiration of the Russians and the Syrian regime after controlling Jabal al-Arba’in and what remains of Jabal Shahshabo and Zawiya Mountain,” he added.
Rahal indicated that what is happening today in the vicinity of Ain Issa is also reflected in the situation in Idlib, “where Turkey’s pressure on Russia in that region is matched by Russian pressure on the opposition groups and Turkey in Zawiya Mountain.”
He ruled out the launching of a military operation by Syrian Regime and Russian forces south of the M4, and he thinks that it is only pressures on Turkey to make concessions, “but for Russia, Turkey is more important than controlling Idlib.”
Russian messages
A media activist living in Idlib, Ali Abu Omar al-Farouq, agrees with Rahal that “the recent military escalation of the Syrian government forces is directed by Russia to pressure Turkey to fulfill its promises. As we saw several days ago, Russian forces stationed in the military base of Hmeimim, attacked Tarheen, east of Aleppo.”
The Russian pressures may include “moving to get rid of the opposition groups along the Aleppo-Latakia highway, especially after the targeting of Russian and Turkish patrols,” he added.
Syrian journalist and analyst Nasr al-Yusef, said, “the recent escalation is nothing more than trying to figure out each side’s moves.”
He believes that the truce between Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, “is likely to hold.”
Al-Yusef added that the Russians are warning Turkey from straying from the agreement with the West, and particularly the Americans.
He pointed out that “the statements of Erdogan and Cavusoglu indicate a rapprochement between Turkey and the West which will not please Russia.”