Violation of ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh and the positions of Ankara and Moscow
ISTANBUL, Turkey (North Press) – The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on December 12 that it detected the first violation of the ceasefire agreement in the Nagorno-Karabakh region between Armenia and Azerbaijan, amid an exchange of accusations between the two parties.
On Sunday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Vovayi Pashinyan accused Turkey of participating in an attack launched by Azerbaijani forces on Armenian sites south of the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Denis Korkodinov, the president of the International Center for Political Analysis and Forecasting based in Moscow, told North Press that these actions by the Azerbaijani army are primarily because of the desire to oppose Armenia by building a highway there which goes beyond the borders of the Lachin District.
“Khtsaberd is a small village of 40 families, and this village is important to Yerevan because of its geographical location. It can use it to build a new highway to replace the road that Azerbaijan controlled in the Lachin District,” Korkodinov added.
Russian position
Korkodinov declared that Moscow is fully aware that the normalization of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh cannot happen quickly, and each of the parties to the conflict still have military-political and regional claims against each other.
“Moscow is ready to resume the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation,” he noted.
“It is important for Russia to emphasize to the international scene that its peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh successfully deals with the tasks assigned to it to ensure peace in the region,” he said.
The Kremlin will seek to reduce the number of victims in the event of any attempts to restart the conflict between the two parties, and this can be achieved if Russian forces act as a mediator between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, according to the Russian analyst.
Turkish position
“Turkey aims to create obstacles to interaction between Armenia and Iran to bypass the Lachin Corridor,” Korkodinov declared.
“Ankara expresses its concern about members of the Armenian armed formations operating in the region, which Tehran could use to implement its military and political plans in Nagorno-Karabakh,” he added.
A Turkish source told North Press that Armenia and Iran are in an unenviable position due to the Turkish-Russian-Azerbaijani rapprochement.
He pointed out that the relationship between the Russians and Iran these days is cold due to several issues, the most important of which is Syria.
It seems that the Russians and the international community have realized that Iran should leave Syria, and Iran seems to not be leaving, and the best proof of this is the visit of the new foreign minister Faisal Mekdad to Tehran, according to the source.
He believes that the Russians will now put pressure on Armenia or Iran, because this agreement cannot be abandoned by Russia because it constitutes a large dimension in the Caucasus region. Russia confirms the ceasefire in order to confirm that it is the leader of the Caucasus in a letter to the president-elect Joe Biden and his new team.
Turkey cannot give up its support for Azerbaijan, because it is a base for it in the near and distant future, according to the source.
“Turkey is preparing now for more than one direction and for more than one situation, and it must adopt its plans, and prepare all possibilities and options that it may face later with the arrival of the new American president,” he added.
On November 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Azerbaijan and Armenia had reached an agreement providing for a ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, with the two countries’ forces remaining stationed in their current areas of control.
Azerbaijan announced the killing of 4 of its soldiers as a result of attacks carried out by Armenian forces hiding in the forests of Nagorno-Karabakh region during the past week, in violation of the ceasefire.